Geopolitics Review - 25th November 2024
Hidden Wars: Khalistan
Contents
Introduction
What Is Khalistan?
The Canada-India Escalation
Moving Forward
Concluding Remarks
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Bitesize Edition
In continuing my series on Hidden Wars, today I dive into the Sikh-separatist state hoped for by some, named Khalistan.
Back in 1947, India was partitioned into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan after independence from the British. The Sikh community didn’t receive their own state, and hence arose the Khalistan movement.
The 1970s and 1980s saw tensions rise sharply, with political ramifications and violence seen on multiple occasions. Since this peak in tensions however, the Khalistan movement has declined in support. And so, why is the issue rising to the surface once again today? How is the Khalistan movement contributing to negative relations between India and Canada? And what of this assassination plot of Sikh separatist leaders around the world? This is very much a hidden war, with very little coverage surrounding it, and so let’s break it down.
Introduction
In continuing my series on hidden conflicts unfolding around the world, we today discuss Khalistan. Firstly, what is Khalistan, and why is the region leading to rapidly rising tensions between the Indians and the Canadians? Find out more below!
What Is Khalistan?
The Khalistan movement is a Sikh separatist movement, with the hope of establishing a Sikh homeland centred in the Punjab State of India. The term “Khalistan” translates roughly into “Land of the Pure”.
The origin of the movement came in 1947 during the partition of India. India was divided into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, but the Sikh community didn’t receive their own state. This led to the pursuit of greater Sikh autonomy, but independence was not discussed at the time.
The Akali Dal, a Sikh political party, was important in raising the issues of greater Sikh autonomy during the 1970s. In the 1980s, the Bhindranwale Movement saw Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale gain followers and he was to be seen as a defender of Sikh rights. To India, he was seen as a militant.
In 1984, Operation Blue Star saw the removal of Bhindranwale and his supporters who had fortified themselves in the Golden Temple in Amritsar. This led to many deaths in one of the holiest sites in Sikhism, leading to outrage around the world.
In response, then-Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards in response to Operation Blue Star. The riots that emerged afterwards saw further Sikh deaths.
Since this peak of tensions, the movement has lost momentum, with counter-insurgency movements implemented by the Indian government, and the hope for peace and stability among the Sikh community motivating further peace. This leads us to the status of the movement today, and how tensions have arisen between India and Canada in recent years.
The Canada-India Escalation
This re-emergence of the Khalistan issue started in 2018 when the group named Sikhs for Justice announced they would undertake a Khalistani voting process across several countries. In 2019, the group were banned from activities in India. This group has contributed to raised tensions with Pakistan, who India believes is funding them. Interestingly, the Sikhs for Justice website shares its domain with a Karachi-based website, thus indicating some connection. In 2021, the group released a map with their planned territory for the proposed state.
2023 saw a steep escalation, with the assassination of a Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver, Canada. He was gunned down in the street, and four men have since been arrested and charged with the murder. From this Nijjar case, it has left many wondering if more details will emerge surrounding this wider plot.
A didfeeent plot against a Sikh separatist leader named Gurpatwant Singh Pannun was also uncovered in the United States. He is labelled and charged as a terrorist in India for advocating for a separatist Sikh state. A man named Nikhil Gupta was accused of hiring a hitman in New York who was actually an undercover law enforcement officer. He paid $15000 up front, with a final payment of $100,000 agreed for the hit on Pannun. Law enforcement caught this attempt, but others haven’t been caught, implying a deeper web of networks involved in this plot. Gupta was expedited to the United States from the Czech Republic in June 2024.
An investigation since has revealed the plot had four targets, with Nijjar being the first, and three out of the four being Canadian targets.
This plot has been investigated internally by India and by the United States. A key conclusion was that it was expected an Indian government official was behind the plot, initially code-named CC-1. CC-1 was communicating heavily with Gupta. This was revealed to be a man named Vikash Yadav, who was charged in the last few days. Yadav is no longer in the employ of the Indian government, but he worked in the foreign intelligence service. He also previously served in India’s Central Reserve Police Force. As of yet, Yadav hasn’t been caught. Then head of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Samant Goel also approved the plot, according to the Washington Post.
More and more information is coming out regarding this plot, and names involved are being caught. However, tensions have already risen between the Canadians and the Indians. Both countries have pulled their diplomats out of each other’s country, in what is a sure sign of declining relations. What will occur moving forward from here? Can these relations be repaired?
Moving Forward
Just a few days ago, Canada denied it had evidence that Modi knew anything about the assassination plots. It seems this plot has come from elsewhere within the Indian government or the intelligence services in isolation, but it has damaged relations between the two nations at the highest levels. Is there a path to reverse declining tensions and put India and Canada on a productive path forward once again?
Firstly, it’s worth asking some key questions to determine incentives towards cooperation.
Is India cooperating with this investigation? Indian officials were in Washington to share the findings of their individual investigations, which would imply cooperation . Secondly, is India’s investigation discovering any key facts that advance the knowledge of this plot, or has that been American discoveries that have discovered the latest key takeaways? The United States stated they are happy with the steps India is taking to ensure its own accountability, but that there are still many steps to take. This indicates a long process, but it’s one that the Indians and Americans both wish to work on the same side.
The next key question is how deep this plot goes. If this plot isn’t fully snuffed out, then it will remain in existence in some capacity. Especially between the Indians and the Canadians, this ensures a floor remains through which tensions can’t be reduced any further.
And so, could the Americans broker a calming of tensions between its two allies with this plot still remaining in the background? The Indians recognise the importance of their relations with the United States, especially as a hedge to China, even despite the border deal I discussed recently. But even then, India has accused the Americans of meddling in internal Indian affairs. Hence, tensions are simmering even between the Americans and the Indians.
The sooner this plot can be discovered in its entirety, the better an environment for a potential calming of tensions. But if this plot isn’t fully fleshed out, there likely remains fuel to maintain the fiery tensions, especially between the Canadians and Indians.
We now turn to Khalistan, another aspect that could continue to contribute to heightened geopolitical tensions between India and other nations around the world.
The hope for a Sikh state seemed a story of the past a few years ago, so why has the resurgence occurred? Key figures such as Pannun and his group Sikhs for Justice are key supporters of a Khalistan state in India, and they possess huge followings. With Canada possessing the largest Sikh population outside of India, they are one such country that is a key area for this campaiging. But, we have seen Khalistan referendums occur worldwide, organised by Sikhs for Justice, starting in October 2021. Such referendums aren’t legally binding, but have occurred in Australia, Canada, Italy, New Zealand, Switzerland, the UK, and the U.S. Its that these nations are allowing freedom of speech to facilitate these movements that India is disagreeing with.
Regardless of referendums occurring around the world, any actual change in the pursuit of Khalistan is going to come from within India. And so, are there any political parties fighting for a Sikh separatist state? If so, how are they performing in elections?
Many politicians within Punjab state that the Khalistan movement has had very little support for decades, and that includes today in India itself. A 2021 Pew Research Centre survey reported 95% of Sikhs were “very proud” to be Indian, and 70% agreed a person who disrespects India can’t be considered a Sikh. Even parties within Punjab, such as the AAP and SAD, are significant players in Punjabi politics and highlight Sikh issues, but they do not support the Khalistan movement. They remain focused on other issues, and any group associated with Khalistan is highlighted as extremist. Within India, momentum for Khalistan has seemingly been almost close to shut down, whether through fear or the passage of time.
The tensions here are hence arising from other nations around the world in the opinion of the Indians. But, these plots potentially arent isolated to only Canada and the United States. It has also been suspected that similar intelligence plots in the UK, Pakistan, and Australia have been occurring.
Avtar Singh Khanda died in the UK three days before the hit on Nijjar. Also, some have reported that over 20 assassinations have occurred on Pakistani soil since 2019. Tensions between the Indians and Australians have also arisen over the Khalistan movement. ABC News in Australia has published two articles, one focused on a suspected nest of Indian spies being expelled from Australia, and the other regarding Sikh leaders being harassed and threatened.
There is a scenario where this assassination plot isn’t isolated to only the United States and Canada. Perhaps the entire plot is seeking to crush the Khalistan movement once and for all. If this is the case, this issue could run deeper than anybody could imagine.
Concluding Remarks
The biggest tensions here remain between Canada and India. Modi has accused Trudeau of “pandering” to “Khalistani extremists” for domestic votes, while Canada states that freedom of speech is being exercised.
If tensions are to fall, the U.S. will likely be involved in enacting a bridge of communication. If diplomats return, that will be one of the first signs of a positive improvement in relations between the two. While both the assassination plot and the Khalistan referendums occur around the world, I’d argue this is low probability.
As for Khalistan, and within India, the idea isn’t heavily supported, even in the Punjab State where 60% of the population are Sikh. It seems that any Khalistani movements will continue to occur from abroad. Hence we seem stuck between Western freedom of speech allowing Khalistani movements to continue, and the Indian hope of shutting those movements down. In my view, this non-negotiable will lead to tensions remaining. The plot remaining unsolved or the assassinations continuing is a further potential spark.
Next week, I’m going to discuss the recent ICC arrest warrants against Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Keep an eye out for that.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Brazilian Officers Plan To Kill Lula? Bolsanaro Coup Attempt?
Danish Navy Hunts Chinese Ship Suspected of Baltic Cable Sabotage
Germany Admits It Is Unlikely To Arrest Netanyahu For ICC Warrant
Putin Pondering What Trump Peace Deal In Ukraine Could Look Like
Russia Hits Ukraine Energy Sector with 120 Missiles, 90 Drones
Russia Provided Missiles and Oil To North Korea In Exchange For Troops
Russia Reported To Be Recruiting Hundreds of Yemeni Mercenaries
US Declares Opposition Leader In Venezuela As President-Elect
Great Substack Posts On Geopolitics
Econolog - State of Emergency
Cymposium - The Silicon Revolution
Economic Forces - Econ 101 Is Wrong About Tariffs
Sarcastosaurus - The Oreshnik Scam
Andrew Korybko - Russia’s Veto of the UNSC Resolution on Sudan
Thanks for reading! I’d greatly appreciate it if you were to like or share this post with others! If you want more then subscribe on Substack for these posts directly to your email inbox. I research history, geopolitics, and financial markets to understand the world and the people around us. If any of my work helps you be more prepared and ease your mind, that’s great. If you like what you read please share with others.
Key Links
The Geopolitics Explained Podcast
If you want to see daily updates and discover other newsletters that suit you, download the Substack App.
You can become a paid subscriber to support my work. There are long-form monthly articles in my global questions series exclusively for paid subscribers. Read Geopolitics Explained for 20p per day or start a free trial below to find out if my work is for you! I appreciate your support!
Sources:
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Khalistan
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/9/27/what-is-the-khalistan-movement-how-is-it-linked-to-india-canada-tensions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-66852291.amp
https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-khalistan-movement-why-is-it-fuelling-india-canada-rift-2023-09-19/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/how-a-killing-at-a-sikh-temple-led-to-canada-and-india-expelling-each-others-diplomats
https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-names-chief-aide-indias-modi-campaign-against-sikh-separatists-2024-10-30/
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67582825.amp
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/6/24/sikh-assassinations-are-the-us-and-canada-raising-the-heat-on-india
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/30/did-india-order-the-murder-of-a-us-sikh-separatist-heres-what-we-know
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/12/fourth-indian-arrested-and-charged-in-canada-over-sikh-activists-killing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67570007.amp
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-attorney-announces-extradition-indian-national-charged-connection-foiled-plot-assassinate#:~:text=Nikhil%20Gupta%2C%20also%20known%20as,presented%20on%20the%20charges%20today.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/indian-government-assassination-allegations-pakistan-intelligence-officials
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_Referendum
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6989059
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/04/indian-government-assassination-allegations-pakistan-intelligence-officials
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/who-is-vikash-yadav-indian-charged-in-pannun-assassination-plot/article68767830.ece
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-30/modi-government-operated-nest-of-spies-in-australia-/103786892
https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/canada-khalistan-referendum-india-sikhs-b2173723.html?callback=in&code=NTBINGEXYJKTNTU5NC0ZMGY0LTG4ZDKTMJC3ZJM4YZEZNJKZ&state=10b4a5e4afbe49f9955f02eb72c4e229
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
https://apnews.com/article/australia-india-canada-sikh-foreign-minister-4aa2d7dfdc83212fcb77c3f38fe5f1bb
