Geopolitics Review - 24th March 2025

The Donald Diaries: The Gaza Ceasefire And Its Collapse

Dylan Muggleton

Mar 24, 2025

Contents

Introduction
What Was The Plan In January?
Was The Plan Ever Real?
Concluding Remarks

Bitesize Edition

When Trump entered office in January, he bragged about finally pulling the Gaza ceasefire over the line. The next two months saw hostages released by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners released by the Israelis. Yet at the end of this first phase, disagreements started to arise. After multiple weeks of no progress, Israel restarted air strikes on the Gaza Strip on March 18th.
After attempting to utilise the ceasefire as a boost to the beginning of his Presidency, Trump stated in a February that there are no guarantees the peace will last. We now know that this peace didn’t last, and I question if it was always the intention that it didn’t last.
I’ll explore the journey we travelled on between January and today, and what potential reasons there could be for the fighting restarting. I’ll also explore some deeper geopolitical trends here. Are the United States and Israel both restarting this conflict to send a message to Iran? Let’s explore below.

Introduction

In my next chapter in The Donald Diaries, I’ll discuss what was one of Trump’s first moves when he and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, were a huge part of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas back in January. I believe there is a lot more that exists under the geopolitical surface here. The ceasefire was a tool that once it had achieved its desired effect, was cast aside. So I’ll explore what the initial plan for a ceasefire was, whether it was all a ruse, and where we stand now.

What Was The Plan In January?

The plan proposed in January was three-fold, with each phase set to last 42 days.

Hamas release 33 Israeli captives. All Israeli children, women, and elderly who were still alive would be released, along with living female Israeli soldiers and civilian men under 50 suffering from injuries or health issues. In return, Israel would release 1904 Palestinian prisoners. Aid would be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip, including food and fuel to return power to Gaza. Finally, displaced Palestinians would be able to return to their homes and Israel would gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
Hamas would release all remaining living hostages. In return, Israel would release more prisoners. This would be conditioned on both parties agreeing to a “sustainable calm” period and would see Israel withdraw completely from Gaza.
Hamas would release the deceased hostages in return for deceased Palestinians that Israel holds. The blockade on the Gaza Strip would end and Hamas wouldn’t rebuild its military capabilities.

The first phase unfolded successfully, but Trump and Netanyahu wanted to renegotiate the terms because they were mainly completed under the Biden administration. Israel wanted an extension of the first phase to release more hostages, a deal which Hamas refused since this is the only card they have to play. After this, Israel started to pressure Hamas.

Israel refused to withdraw from Gaza fully, blocked food and medicine from entering Gaza, and shut off electricity to Gaza’s desalination plant which effectively leaves the Strip with no clean water. All this occurred under a ceasefire and implies Israeli intent to never adhere to the original plan. Also, it’s worth noting that strategies such as this hurt Palestinian civilians the most. Was this the Israeli plan all along?

blue and white printer paper — Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash

Both sides have accused the other of breaking the ceasefire. Israel stated that Hamas violated the ceasefire by using hostages for rituals and propaganda purposes and that they were rebuilding their military capabilities during the ceasefire. On the flip side, Hamas accused Israel of carrying out strikes on Gaza during the ceasefire.

Since seeing this plan collapse, I have questioned whether it was ever real and why the White House has greenlit the new strikes on Gaza. Trump’s comments on February said he has “no guarantees that the peace will hold.” Warning lights should be flashing everywhere, and the evidence here points towards bigger games being played. Let’s explore what the underlying geopolitical trends could be.

Was The Plan Ever Real?

This ceasefire was flawed from the start. Trump wanted a quick win over Biden by pushing a ceasefire agreement over the line. He also wanted a boost to the start of his Presidency since the agreement was finalised before Trump entered office. Now that a ceasefire is no longer serving Trump and Netanyahu, they cast it aside.

Trump met with Netanyahu in the Oval Office at the beginning of February. This ceasefire had been active for a few weeks, and the first few hostages had been released. Trump then gave Netanyahu everything beyond his wildest dreams. He referred to Gaza as a “demolition site”, and doubled down on relocating Palestinians elsewhere, a move that has been wholeheartedly rejected by the entire Arab world and beyond, but is known to be a popular view amongst Israel’s far-right government. Trump stated he wasn’t happy with many of the terms that the Biden administration negotiated, and he was adamant that a 5-year rebuild of the Strip was impossible. He later confirmed this view as he rejected the Arab League’s $53B rebuild plan. He also imposed sanctions on the ICC for its treatment of Israel, who issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant last year. This undermines global institutions that are already weakened since they function at the whims of the United States.

I believe one explanation is this is all a consequence of Trump’s character. His unconventional transactional diplomacy usually dictates his decisions. If we assume this is also the case in supporting Israel’s renewed strikes, what is he getting in return from the Israelis?

I don’t think Trump is playing 4D chess. He’s smashing the board in the hope that his opponent’s pieces fall off and everybody will see what he’s doing with the noise he is making. This will also cause damage to his own pieces, as is seen by global attitudes to the United States souring under Trump. The chess board is part of Trump’s reality TV show approach to the Presidency. Be it the Gaza Riviera, Canada as the 51st state, the Panama Canal, Greenland, or the Gulf of America, it’s all throwing anything at the wall and seeing what sticks. Trump came up with his Gaza Riviera plan on the day of Netanyahu’s visit and proposed it to the media without consultation or an inkling of thought toward what the consequences of such a move would be. Again, it creates more noise, which ultimately gives Trump more leeway and time to attempt to pass his wide array of policies, whether domestically or globally.

Trump always portrays himself as the one with the cards, as Zelenskyy knows all too well. Trump is always in a position of strength, and via tariffs and other tools of economic statecraft, he coerces others into agreements that could disadvantage them because, as Europe has learned, many nations rely too heavily on the United States. For Donald, everyone is a pawn in his game. This aspect of our geopolitical world is unlikely to change, and will only be exemplified by Trump’s new power-based spheres of influence world order, as I discussed on Thursday.

The plan in Gaza also affects the wider Middle East. Jordan and Egypt refused the Trump plan to relocate Palestinians. This would give Jordan a Palestinian majority and an economic crisis. It would enact a food crisis in Egypt which already struggles to feed its large population. It also risks alienating Saudi Arabia which wholeheartedly rejected this plan. Another element here is that moving Palestinians would risk moving Hamas also. This is a risk these nations won’t take. But if people don’t like Trump’s deals, he throws the toys out of the pram. Again, Zelenskyy learned this all too well. His plan was rejected here, so does he leave the Middle East to fend for itself? Is this why the UAE signed a $1.4T investment deal with the U.S. this week? Because it would put them in Trump’s good books.

For the rest of the Middle East, does Trump down the line say “You rejected my deal, so I want this instead.” This could be an expansion of the Abraham Accords in a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Saudis have stated any deal is dependent on the establishment of a Palestinian state. Could Trump aim to wriggle a deal out of the Saudis without a Palestinian state?

There are so many strings to pull on here, but the biggest story is the breaking of the ceasefire. Part of the previous agreement that was liked by all was the hostage releases. So why now have the Israelis commenced the war once again, even with 59 hostages remaining in Gaza? The connection between all of this is Iran. I’ll discuss this in greater detail on Thursday.

aerial view photography of city beside body of water — Photo by Shai Pal on Unsplash

Concluding Remarks

With Israel backed by Trump and the United States, where this suffering will end for innocent Palestinian civilians is an awful concept to even ponder. The rest of the world has commented and hoped for a return to the ceasefire and hostage releases, but will the pressure be put on the Israelis and Trump? Yesterday, Israel also launched a rocket attack on Lebanon, breaking the ceasefire agreement that was reached there. Will this receive any repercussions from global leaders?

There have also been reports that protests are expected in Israel due to Netanyahu’s grip over politics and his moves to weaken democratic practices in the country. Will this come to fruition?

Finally, with Trump firmly behind Israel, is there a deeper plot here? In this last year, we have seen Iranian proxies and Iran itself attacked, and all attacks have successfully weakened the Iranians. Trump has spoken strongly about ensuring Iran can’t pursue nuclear weapons, placing a 2-month deadline for the Iranians to pursue a new nuclear deal. If this doesn’t happen, Trump has vowed to use other options that will be equally as successful. Is this why Trump is backing Israel so strongly, because together they’ve both set the destruction of Iran as priority number one? I’ll explore this potential trend on Thursday in more detail.

Other News In Geopolitics This Week:

Thanks for reading! I’d greatly appreciate it if you were to like or share this post with others! If you want more then subscribe on Substack for these posts directly to your email inbox. I research history, geopolitics, and financial markets to understand the world and the people around us. If any of my work helps you be more prepared and ease your mind, that’s great. If you like what you read please share with others.

Thanks for reading Geopolitics Explained! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Key Links

Geopolitics Database

The Geopolitics Explained Podcast

If you want to see daily updates and discover other newsletters that suit you, download the Substack App.

Available for iOS and Android

You can become a paid subscriber to support my work. There are paid posts every Thursday and long-form monthly articles in my global questions series exclusively for paid subscribers. The Geopolitics Database is also accessible. Read Geopolitics Explained for 20p per day or start a free trial below to find out if my work is for you! I appreciate your support!

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/18/why-has-israel-resumed-large-scale-airstrikes-on-gaza
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/where-does-israel-hamas-ceasefire-194121463.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABy401QFZQCS_q-bTnKMak3n3a3E86j-qZvBulWUTFRQdBC0VXerxguvc77VEVekMUO8pBgTiseXfFWSpTIEbDMcZBR2KfPbSepEUSIhHsyiVK7TEPmWHiKWqXf8gcAYBILlL_YV4JoRLA2I92mhN_FCxeBr40DfIvRThbYCLej6
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/3/19/how-trump-took-credit-for-the-gaza-ceasefire-and-then-let-it
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6yp5d5v9jo.amp
https://www.voanews.com/amp/trump-hosting-netanyahu-for-white-house-talks-amid-gaza-ceasefire/7962063.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvg4zwwez9et
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/3/18/israels-ben-gvir-to-rejoin-netanyahus-government
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2025_Israeli_attacks_on_the_Gaza_Strip