Geopolitics Review - 24th March 2025

The Donald Diaries: The Gaza Ceasefire And Its Collapse

Contents

1. Introduction

2. What Was The Plan In January?

3. Was The Plan Ever Real?

4. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• When Trump entered office in January, he bragged about finally pulling the Gaza ceasefire over the line. The next two months saw hostages released by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners released by the Israelis. Yet at the end of this first phase, disagreements started to arise. After multiple weeks of no progress, Israel restarted air strikes on the Gaza Strip on March 18th.

• After attempting to utilise the ceasefire as a boost to the beginning of his Presidency, Trump stated in a February that there are no guarantees the peace will last. We now know that this peace didn’t last, and I question if it was always the intention that it didn’t last.

• I’ll explore the journey we travelled on between January and today, and what potential reasons there could be for the fighting restarting. I’ll also explore some deeper geopolitical trends here. Are the United States and Israel both restarting this conflict to send a message to Iran? Let’s explore below.

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Introduction

In my next chapter in The Donald Diaries, I’ll discuss what was one of Trump’s first moves when he and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, were a huge part of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas back in January. I believe there is a lot more that exists under the geopolitical surface here. The ceasefire was a tool that once it had achieved its desired effect, was cast aside. So I’ll explore what the initial plan for a ceasefire was, whether it was all a ruse, and where we stand now.

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What Was The Plan In January?

The plan proposed in January was three-fold, with each phase set to last 42 days.

1. Hamas release 33 Israeli captives. All Israeli children, women, and elderly who were still alive would be released, along with living female Israeli soldiers and civilian men under 50 suffering from injuries or health issues. In return, Israel would release 1904 Palestinian prisoners. Aid would be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip, including food and fuel to return power to Gaza. Finally, displaced Palestinians would be able to return to their homes and Israel would gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip.

2. Hamas would release all remaining living hostages. In return, Israel would release more prisoners. This would be conditioned on both parties agreeing to a “sustainable calm” period and would see Israel withdraw completely from Gaza.

3. Hamas would release the deceased hostages in return for deceased Palestinians that Israel holds. The blockade on the Gaza Strip would end and Hamas wouldn’t rebuild its military capabilities.

The first phase unfolded successfully, but Trump and Netanyahu wanted to renegotiate the terms because they were mainly completed under the Biden administration. Israel wanted an extension of the first phase to release more hostages, a deal which Hamas refused since this is the only card they have to play. After this, Israel started to pressure Hamas.

Israel refused to withdraw from Gaza fully, blocked food and medicine from entering Gaza, and shut off electricity to Gaza’s desalination plant which effectively leaves the Strip with no clean water. All this occurred under a ceasefire and implies Israeli intent to never adhere to the original plan. Also, it’s worth noting that strategies such as this hurt Palestinian civilians the most. Was this the Israeli plan all along?

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash

Both sides have accused the other of breaking the ceasefire. Israel stated that Hamas violated the ceasefire by using hostages for rituals and propaganda purposes and that they were rebuilding their military capabilities during the ceasefire. On the flip side, Hamas accused Israel of carrying out strikes on Gaza during the ceasefire.

Since seeing this plan collapse, I have questioned whether it was ever real and why the White House has greenlit the new strikes on Gaza. Trump’s comments on February said he has “no guarantees that the peace will hold.” Warning lights should be flashing everywhere, and the evidence here points towards bigger games being played. Let’s explore what the underlying geopolitical trends could be.

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Was The Plan Ever Real?