Geopolitics Review – 22nd July 2024

The First Weeks of The Labour Government

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The New Cabinet

3. The First Days and Weeks

4. The Kings Speech

5. Starmer On The Global Stage

6. Looking Forward

7. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• I don’t know about you, but this past month in politics and geopolitics has been one of the fastest-paced months in recent memory. UK elections, French elections, Trump assassination attempts, and now Biden stepping down. So much so, that in releasing these reviews once a week, I’m slipping behind the news timeline because there is so much to discuss. One such topic that is now firmly in the rearview mirror is the UK election from July 4th. There is still much to discuss on this topic.

• Since Labour’s landslide victory, we’ve seen a new cabinet chosen, the King’s Speech proposing what Labour plans to do in this parliament, and Starmer’s interactions on the international stage. Today, I’ll reflect on these first few weeks of the new Labour government, and I’ll explore where Labour is doing well, and where they will face challenges.

• Tomorrow, I’ll release a post on Biden stepping down in the Presidential Race, so keep an eye out for that.

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Introduction

After exploring the election results and different global voting systems last week, today we’re going to expand to view the wider world. Specifically, I’ll explore what Starmer has been doing in his first days and weeks, and where the geopolitics of the UK will place him on the global stage.

Also from an admin point of view, some may have noticed the “Other News” section has been missing for a few weeks. I was on holiday at the start of July, I returned home for three days and then left again. I’m now back home so “Other News” will be back next week.

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The New Cabinet

After the election, we’ve seen a peaceful transition of power, hailed as a success for British democracy by many. Sunak congratulated Starmer, as did Hunt, Rees-Mogg, and many others. If The Tories didn’t do this, they’d be adding more feathers to the hat of a Labour Party that’s already equipped with 411 feathers.

Some state that the election was a damage limitation strategy for the Tories. The trend in approval rating was worsening, with many calling Sunak leaving the D-Day event early as one of the biggest talking points of the UK election cycle. Sunak certainly didn’t help himself, and so calling the election now was them taking the loss and starting to rebuild in a process that will likely take years. It’s also yet unknown who will be the Conservative Party leader with Sunak stepping down, but staying in charge until November to allow for a lengthy succession campaign. Jeremy Hunt has ruled himself out. Rumoured names are Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat. Time will tell on this front. One thing I do question is the direction of the Conservatives politically. Sunak’s weak election performance is explained by some as a trend more to the left for the usually right-leaning party. Perhaps a more right-wing member such as Braverman or Patel would drag the Conservatives back towards their usual political stomping ground.

Photo by Nik on Unsplash

Back to Labour, and Starmer now has made his cabinet choices. The following are who Starmer chose for his cabinet:

• Angela Rayner - Deputy PM

• Ed Milliband - Energy Secretary

• Rachel Reeves - Chancellor

• Yvette Cooper - Home Secretary

• David Lammy - Foreign Secretary

• Wes Streeting - Health Secretary

• Lisa Nandy - Culture Secretary

• Shabana Mahmood - Justice Secretary

• Bridget Philipson - Education Secretary

• Pat McFadden - Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

• Liz Kendall - Work and Pensions Secretary

• John Healey - Defence Secretary

• Jonathan Reynolds - Business and Trade Secretary

• Patrick Vallance - Science Minister

• James Timpson - Prisons Minister

Note: For anybody interested, I’ll link the Rest is Politics Leading episodes for these cabinet members who have appeared on the podcast.

A few takeaways from Starmer’s selections. Firstly, a wonderful aspect of this cabinet is highlighted when we look at approval ratings. A large number of those asked about each new member of the cabinet answered “I don’t know” when asked for an opinion. This gives them time to shape their image to the public and provides a blank slate upon which many of these in the cabinet can build. After 14 years, it’s about the politics, not the people in government. Starmer’s cabinet also has the most female ministers in history. A mix of backgrounds, personalities, genders, and beliefs is vital in any group setting. The more variance, the more different viewpoints can be collected together to formulate a more well-rounded opinion and strategy. This variety in the cabinet is a welcomed move. It’s also worth noting many working-class voters for Labour will approve of the cabinet, with only one attending private school.

Photo by Tina Witherspoon on Unsplash

The appointments of Patrick Vallance and James Timpson are interesting. Vallance was chief scientific advisor during COVID-19, and James Timpson was CEO of shoe repair company Timpson until recently. Starmer is seemingly open to including experts in his cabinet rather than politicians who know nothing about the role in which they’re given. Take Grant Shapps for the previous Tory Cabinet as an example. Shapps held what seemed like thousands of different positions in the cabinet, bouncing around like a hot potato. Nobody can be this varied in their knowledge and also perform competently. A level of expertise in these roles in Labour’s cabinet I hope will provide stability, especially in the sectors in which these experts are deployed. Those at the forefront of knowledge in their sectors also stand the best chance of innovation, something the floundering UK desperately needs if it is to be competitive on a global stage once again. This is especially true if they are backed by sufficient resources. We could invite investment in the UK and finally increase productivity, but our period of deindustrialization has ensured the domestic manufacturing sector has fallen as a percentage of GDP. Hence, investment has to come from the services sector, or through innovation. Appointing experts gives us a greater chance of this. More on this later!

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The First Days and Weeks

Starmer has revolved his manifesto around change. In my view, the biggest of these is the establishment of Great British Energy, based in Scotland, and the reindustrialisation the UK so desperately needs.