Geopolitics Review - 21st October 2024
Geopolitics Review - 21st October 2024
The UK Losing Influence In The Indian Ocean?
Contents
Introduction
The History
UK-Mauritius Deal
China’s String of Pearls Hypothesis
Looking Forward
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
The British spent most of the 20th century unwinding the period of colonialism that unfolded during the height of the British Empire. Some footholds remain today, however. One such foothold was the Chagos Islands.
In a move that has been discussed for many years, the Chagos Islands have now been given to the sovereignty of Mauritius. Does this contribute to declining British hard power on a global scale? Why has this occurred now, and who stands to potentially benefit from this agreement? Find out more below.
Introduction
This move by the UK has been hotly debated. Strategically, it’s been seen as a geopolitical loss of influence by some, although military base access has been secured for the next 99 years. The British and Americans maintain a foothold in the Indian Ocean, but will other countries seek to gain influence with the islands under new sovereignty?
Morally, if this issue leads to the return of the Chaggosians, then it should be pursued with enthusiasm. It would be seen as a win for a community who have been voiceless for decades.
This event has both geopolitical and moral implications. Today I’ll explore recent events through both scopes.
The History
The Chagos Archipelago is a group of 60 islands in the Indian Ocean, which was referred to as a British Indian Ocean Territory.
The ethnic Chaggosians lived there from the 1700s. They were brought by the French from India and Africa as slaves. The slaves originated from modern-day Mozambique and Madagascar via Mauritius, hence where Mauritius becomes involved in this story.
The 1814 Treaty of Paris saw the UK take control of the Islands after the Napoleonic Wars. The UK used the atoll of Diego Garcia as a slave trading island between Indonesia, the Seychelles and Reunion. At this time, a Malaysian population was also incorporated into the Chagos Islands. By 1839, slavery had been abolished and a 5-year transition period unfolded. The island then became home to a group of plantations on which the Chaggosians worked.
During World War Two, British and Indian troops were stationed on the islands as a point of influence in the Indian Ocean. It was over two decades later when the military use of Diego Garcia rose to the forefront.
A 50-year US-UK agreement was signed with Mauritius in 1966 to use the Chagos Islands for military use, and that the islands wouldn’t have any resident population. This deal included a £3M payment from the UK to Mauritius. After this proposal for the islands to have no civilian population, in 1968, the United Kingdom on behalf of the United States, forced the removal of the Chaggosians with forced deportations. This came in the same year as the independence of Mauritius, but the UK retained control of the Chagos Islands.
The United States had no “possessions” in the area. In collaboration with the British, the plan was to find an unpopulated territory to avoid sovereignty and colonisation issues. These issues were not avoided. This move led to uproar and calls for compensation and the right of return for the Chaggosians, many of whom settled in Crawley and Manchester in the UK. By 1973, the entire population had been removed, with the £3M payment looming over this exploitation deemed as woefully inadequate.
Any support for the Chaggosians over the decades since has been very limited, with both the UK and US undermining any potential return process for the Chaggosians. Protests, petitions, and diplomatic leaks have occurred since the year 2000. As recently as 2004, the British Government stated those originally from the island will be banned from returning “forever”. A 2016 ruling supported this also. This changed in 2017 when a UN General Assembly meeting voted in favour of the International Court of Justice referring to the territorial dispute between the United Kingdom and Mauritius.
In 2019, the International Court of Justice ruled that the UK didn’t have sovereignty over the Islands, and they should be handed over to Mauritius. The UN General Assembly gave the UK a 6-month period to commence the process. In January 2020, the UK still refused to follow the advice of the ICJ and many other nations around the world. It should be noted this wasn’t legally binding, but was advised and did pressure the UK.
This initial ignorance by the UK makes the latest development all the more unexpected, even though progress had started to be made under the previous Conservative government.
UK-Mauritius Deal
This recent deal has seen the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands handed to Mauritius. A deal is hoped to be finalised by treaty in the following months, with some important addendums expected.
The island of Diego Garcia is the island housing the military base. The base is veiled in secrecy, with visitors very few, and when some are granted visitor status, they are monitored and escorted as they travel the island. It’s been known to be a useful refuelling spot for long-haul flights or for weapons resupply.
The island has also been strategic for the United States during crises in the Middle East, such as the Iranian Revolution, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and many other operations.
India has in previous decades stated the base was limiting peace in the Indian Ocean, but several naval exercises occurred with the two between 2001 and 2004.
India is a key player in the region, while also being against the period of colonialism as a victim of the movement and hence was supportive of Mauritius and its claim. It also implies India‘s attempts to limit Chinese influence in the region, as detailed by the String of Pearls Hypothesis.
China’s String of Pearls Hypothesis
China’s String of Pearls Hypothesis highlights China’s wishes to expand its influence around the Indo-Pacific region. By now, we know the methods that are discussed to do this, be it economic reliance, geographical proximity, or debt and loans through the Belt and Road Initiative.
China has provided Mauritius with loans and a currency swap agreement, as well as the Safe City Agreement utilising Chinese technologies. This has hence led some to believing that the UK’s move out of the Chagos Islands could leave a vacuum that the Chinese have already begun to enter. With the Diego Garcia base remaining there, however, it depends on how much influence the British and Americans seek to exert on the area surrounding them in the Indian Ocean and if China wishes to challenge them directly in this sphere of influence. Yet the fact that this deal has occurred now with great praise from the Biden administration, the expected scenario from the British and the Americans would be that this deal wouldn’t increase Chinese influence in the region. On this front, time will tell. As India grows in strength, they could also pursue strategic partnerships with Mauritius and the Chagos Islands.
Looking Forward
The biggest effects of this will be on the UK. This will bring to the forefront, many other territorial disputes that the British face after their centuries of colonisation. One such issue is the Falkland Islands dispute with Argentina. This issue is more know than that of the Chagos Islands, and it differs in many ways.
The Falkland Islanders voted in 2013 to remain a British Overseas Territory with 99.8%. This is a consequence of the population overwhelmingly identifying as British regardless of its distance from the UK.
The islands were first visited by the French in 1764, and the British established a settlement a year later. Both remained peaceful with one another. The French influence was transferred to the Spanish who had a stronger claim due to their colonial rule in South America. This is when tensions arose, and the British withdrew in 1774. Spain maintained a settlement there until 1811 when it abandoned the island in the period of the Napoleonic Wars. The Falklands were settled by the newly independent Argentina, hence where their claim arises. It was 1833 when the British regained control by removing a small Argentine settlement and establishing a presence there once again. British rule has remained there since 1833, excluding the period of the Falklands War in 1982 when Argentina temporarily occupied the islands.
The first stark difference here is the lack of indigenous population on the Falklands prior to the initial British control, a contrast to the Chaggosians of the Chagos Islands who were forcibly removed. However, the Argentine settlement being forcibly removed when the Brits returned in 1833 is a similarity that isn’t well-known.
The Falklands also are primarily civilian but do host a British military presence. The Chagos Islands military base on Diego Garcia is the main reason for both the British and American’s presence there.
Yet, the Falklands do remain a marker of the British Empire’s colonial period, which itself is becoming a moral issue when others were exploited at the expense of the British Empire for centuries. The Falklands issue is much more known than that of the Chagos Islands, but the UK has international support for the Falklands issue, something they didn’t have after the ICJ ruling on the Chagos Islands. Both issues are remnants of British colonisation, but the origin of British sovereignty varies between the Falklands and Chagos Islands, as does the status of the two islands as civilian or military. Other issues such as Gibraltar also have potential to reignite, but would likely not be as successful as the Chagos Islands process.
Focusing on the domestic politics of the UK, and some argue that this will score short-term points at the cost of long-term security. Some have stated the new Labour government as of yet haven’t demonstrated many of their plans that have seen clear, visible change in the UK. This process already commenced during the rule of the Conservatives was an easy way to clock some points on the board.
Back in the age of colonialism, hot war was frequent. The two World Wars and the Cold War also saw geopolitical strategy games based on spheres of influence. Hence, the British remain in many parts of the world that are far from home.
Morally, returning these islands to ethnicities originating from there is a must. It also resolves disputes that use valuable time and resources of all parties involved. However, for geopolitical strategy and influence, maintaining some level of influence in these disputed regions of the world would be prudent. If not, a weak Britain on the global stage would be seen as even weaker.
The return of the Chaggosians, and the maintenance of the US-UK military base for another 99 years, is a deal that all are incentivised to take on the surface. The red flag here is that the Chaggosians were not consulted in any aspect of this deal. Resettlement on all other islands will now occur, excluding Diego Garcia. But, as has occurred countless times in the past, the Chaggosians were once again voiceless. Even in what is interpreted as a “victory”, the Chaggosians are still being underrepresented. Going forward, I hope to see this change.
Concluding Remarks
My hope here is that the Chaggosians are included in the full treaty on the issue which is expected in the coming months.
As for those calling the deal weak, it leads to questions of whether doing what is morally correct for real human people who were forcibly removed from their homes is interpreted as weak. Imagine being removed from your home against your will. Would you fight to return? Some empathy for those less fortunate with less power is a necessary part of admitting previous mistakes, and working towards addressing said mistakes.
It’s also interesting how the interpretations of weak are originating from Conservatives such as James Cleverly, who while he was foreign minister, had led the talks on this deal. If the Conservatives had got the deal over the line, would they call themselves weak, or did they never have any intention of seeing the deal through to the end? Would Labour have called them out for being weak if the Conservatives had finalised the deal during their rule? This highlights the fragile game of domestic politics and these questions are ones we’ll never know the answer to. But this does highlight the pursuit of self-interest in politics, especially during the current Tory leadership campaign. Tom Tugendhat, a candidate for the next Tory leader, stated that this allowed China an opportunity to gain a foothold in the region, even though the U.S.-UK military base has been secured for the next 99 years. Robert Jenrick stated it’s taken “three months for Starmer to surrender Britain’s strategic interests”.
For a slightly more favourable opinion of the candidates, check out the These Times episode interviews with both below.
Historical injustices have started down a route to being resolved, but the Chaggosians must be involved in the next step. The transition to Mauritius gives the Chaggosians a better chance of being able to return, after it has been blocked by the UK for decades, and continues to be on Diego Garcia. For this, any originating from Diego Garcia should receive further financial repatriations, not inadequate hush money. As for Mauritius and they could experience potential economic benefits through fishing rights, resettlement pursuits, and strategic geopolitical partnerships.
Geopolitically, the UK has secured a strategic position in the Indian Ocean for the next century. For a country that has declined in global influence and power in the last few decades, this should be hailed as a geopolitical win. It also highlights the British pivot from hard power of the British Empire to this new period of soft power influence. The success of this transition will be told with time.
From here, other issues of territorial dispute and colonial injustices will erupt once again. The biggest to keep an eye on is that of the Falkland Islands.
The British know their global influence is declining. Geopolitically, this leaves them in the game, but China and India will continue their geopolitical power dynamics in the region, even after the India-China border deal seems to end a four-year crisis between the two.
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Sources:
https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/05/indias-policy-on-diego-garcia-and-its-quest-for-security-in-the-indian-ocean?lang=en
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diego_Garcia
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckdg7jjlx2go.amp
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy78ejg71exo.amp
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/handing-over-the-chagos-islands-is-a-grave-mistake/
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/chagos-islands-gibraltar-falklands-labour-james-cleverly-conservative-leadership
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/chagos-islands-james-cleverly-uk-mauritius-b2623242.html?callback=in&code=NMJMMMZIODCTNJLHZS0ZNTU1LTHMZGMTZTK4ZDRKNMY0MJQW&state=8b3e07d68a124a4cbdcdd410b101d0bc
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chagossians
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_of_the_Chagossians
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chagos_Archipelago