Geopolitics Review - 21st April 2025

The Donald Diaries: Trump And Russia -Self-Sabotage or Systemic Change?

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Methods of Self-Sabotage

3. Win Friends and Influence People

4. Concluding Remarks

5. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

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Bitesize Edition

• Trump has historically been complimentary of Vladimir Putin and of Russia itself. However, today, Trump seems to be in pursuit of policies that align with Russian interests, even at the detriment of his own nation.

• Trump wants to be seen as a strong man, but undermining the Supreme Court, attacking NATO and European allies, defending Russia-aligned figures and blocking Ukraine aid actually weakens America’s position, while playing directly into the hands of the Russians. This leads to the question, why is this self-sabotage being committed, and does Trump know he’s doing it?

• Through his praise of Russia and Putin, we know Trump wants to replicate a “strong man” persona for himself, but what of the direction of the United States? Does he want to facilitate the rise of an authoritarian mafia state for his own “strong man” personal gain? Russia’s mafia state of corruption ensures those at the top of the power pyramid remain there. Is Trump in pursuit of the same? Find out below.

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Introduction

Last Thursday, I delved into Trump’s history with Russia and his relationship with Putin. Today, I’ll delve into Trump’s current term. Has he committed self-sabotage to benefit the Russians? If so, why would he do this? Could it be intentional sabotage for personal gain, or is he trying to shake things up and is unaware of his actions? Is this a part of a Trumpian political master plan, or is he throwing darts blindfolded? Let’s dive in.

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Methods of Self-Sabotage

Before exploring this self-sabotage, it’s prudent to consider the situation at home. The United States is fragmented politically. On a Substack Note I saw, somebody asked for three words to describe Trump. The comments were the only indicator of confirmation needed, as answers from “greatest leader ever” to “world’s biggest asshole” were included. It’s one of America’s biggest problems today, and so is it an issue Trump wants to quietly address? If so, would the pursuit of a mafia, authoritarian state be the way he can gain this level of extreme control? If he is in pursuit of this, he could learn a lot of lessons from Putin.

Photo by Sivani Bandaru on Unsplash

However, Trump’s current strategies in his pursuit of this control also heavily play into the hands of the Russians. For example:

• Undermining the Supreme Court and Other Institutions - In March 2025, Trump invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelan migrants. Many of these individuals were deported without due process, and so the Supreme Court ordered a halt to the deportations to ensure the proper legal procedures could be pursued. After the Supreme Court made this call, Trump’s administration also deported Kilmar Abrego Garcia to El Salvador, even in violation of court orders. Once again, the Supreme Court moved against Trump, demanding the return of Garcia. However, Trump’s administration has resisted, stating that the judiciary can’t control the executive branch in foreign affairs. Many analysts have stated that Trump’s grasp over America will be put in place by checks and balances. But by disregarding judicial decisions, Trump is working to challenge the traditional norm of judicial independence. Look at how Netanyahu pursued judicial reform in Israel to secure his own position. Is Trump in pursuit of the same? Just a few days ago, the Supreme Court responded as it blocked new deportations under an 18th-century wartime law. A clear tussle between the Supreme Court and Trump is clearly underway, but the aftereffects of Trump’s actions are the biggest issue to consider. Trump’s undermining of the Supreme Court can be seen as weakening trust in democratic institutions and playing into Russia’s hands, or alternatively, is he pursuing systemic change that requires such drastic action? Regardless of where you fall on this issue, damaging democratic institutions benefits Russia because it fuels internal political tension in the U.S., which is already at an elevated level. Trump seems to want a politicised judicial system where all nine Supreme Court justices vote in his favour, but dislikes it when they go against him, even if in independence. His demand for personal loyalty over constitutional unbiasedness is dangerous.

• Attacking U.S. Intelligence - Trump also has a history of attacking and questioning US intelligence, which also benefits the Russians. As I stated on Thursday, Trump backing Russia and Putin at the 2018 Helsinki Summit, when asked about Russian interference, was truly the cherry on the cake.

• Underestimating Disinformation - In April 2025, Marco Rubio closed the State Department’s Global Engagement Centre, which aimed to counter foreign disinformation. Any actor who wants to spout such disinformation now has a much easier job in the United States, although Trump already makes it rather easy for the Russians by echoing their talking points.

Photo by Jorge Franganillo on Unsplash

• Undermining NATO - With Europe on its doorstep, Russia will be jumping for joy as Trump once again damages the military alliance that has been a marker of peace since the end of World War Two. Whether you believe NATO has no purpose, or needs deep reform, or has antagonised Russia with its expansion towards its borders, it can’t be denied that, without the United States being as actively involved as in the past, the alliance is weaker. Europe is realising this and is rushing to rearm, because the writing is on the wall that such a strategy heavily benefits the Russians, both militarily but also psychologically. Without the U.S., NATO deterrent in Eastern Europe, considered by Russia as its sphere of influence, falls dramatically. This is supported by Trump stating he would allow Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who don’t meet defensive targets.

• Alienating European Allies - Trump has been heavily critical of Europe and the EU, even all the way back in his first term when he berated European allies for not meeting NATO defence spending at the 2018 Brussels Summit. This plays into Russia’s strategy to divide the Europeans and the Americans, but has likely had the opposite effect for Europe internally, who once again have a purpose to counter in the form of the Russians. Whether the Europeans have the capability to do this is a topic I’ll cover in this series, but if Trump leaves Europe’s security future to its own devices, can Europe fill this gap alone? As I discussed last week, could the Chinese benefit from a stronger trade relationship with the EU? Considered a fragmented, weak alliance, the EU is where major geopolitical shifts are likely to occur in the future. With the U.S. leaving Europe, it decreases their leverage in addressing global issues as they seek a more selective approach than previous administrations in where to focus their efforts geographically. As U.S. global influence declines in Europe, Russia and China could have an opportunity.

• Blocking Ukrainian Aid, and Blaming Zelenskyy and Ukraine - Globsl trust for the United States has already declined since Trump took office, with many calling him a bully for his tariff strategies. The potential minerals deal is playing a huge part in his pursuit of peace in Ukraine, but could trust drop further if Trump leaves Ukraine to fend for itself, all while asking for more concessions from the weakened Ukrainians? I believe it would. Who’s the biggest beneficiary if the U.S. stops aid, intelligence, and logistics support for Ukraine? The Russians, who could even be in a position to gain more momentum on the ground. Trump also threatens to withdraw from peace agreements, while also pursuing diplomacy with the Russians. If Russia can time this negotiation effort correctly and give just enough to continue fooling Trump they want a deal, they can direct all of Trump’s anger at Ukraine. Donald would then leave Ukraine to its own devices, and then could pursue economically beneficial deals with the Russians. This would lead to outrage and a further destruction of trust in the U.S., but it is a scenario worth considering as it would further appease Russia.

Photo by Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash

• Offering Russia Favourable Deals In Negotiations For Little In Return, Including Rejoining SWIFT And Removing Sanctions - Trump could have done this to get the Russians to the table. After all, the Russians have slight momentum on the ground in Ukraine, and so do need to be incentivised to a deal. But Putin will remember these offers, and that weakens Trump‘s negotiating position. Often known for his volatile, transactional negotiating strategy, he’s played some of his cards here. He’s risking having less space to pivot when he’s grappling with an already stubborn Russia, which doesn’t want a ceasefire at all.

• Defending Russian-Aligned Figures - Roger Stone was convicted of lying to Congress and witness tampering in connection with the probe into Russian interference. Trump commuted his sentence and then pardoned him. Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about communications with the Russian ambassador. Trump pardoned him. Paul Manafort had deep ties to pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs. Trump praised him repeatedly and commuted his sentence. Trump has a pattern of undermining the rule of law and sending Russia a message that any asset will be protected, even if they interfere in domestic U.S. politics.

• Conspiracy Amplification - Trump has supported the Russian claim that Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 election. This is even after an investigation proved there was Russian interference. Even if it was only from the meeting with Trump, where the Russians offered dirt on Hillary Clinton, that is still election interference. Why is Trump making such bold claims that are untrue to protect the Russians?

• Building A Russian Model of Society - Trump wants complete control of the entire system so he can impose his policies uninterrupted. I know another country where power, corruption, and bribery are the tools used to pursue such control. Whether Trump’s Russian support is intentional or accidental, what better way to benefit the Russians that to create a system in the United States that they know and understand?

Photo by Michael Dziedzic on Unsplash

With the number of issues described above, there are certainly aspects of this Trump-Russia connection that are noteworthy and worth greater exploration. But in the pursuit of being thorough, let’s view the other side of the coin? Is this Russia-U.S. connection promoting peace globally and aiming to bring a geopolitical rivalry to an end that could have enormous consequences if it continues? Or perhaps this story is less black and white. Could this perhaps see both benefits and drawbacks unfold together, with strengthening occurring in some areas and weakness seen in others?

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Win Friends and Influence People

In trying to piece together this messy noise, it’s best to focus on who has influence over whom today and where this is heading in the future. Does Russia have influence over the United States? If we consider economic leverage, Russia’s impact is limited as trade is close to zero, and sanctions have damaged economic ties. But, in the military realm, nuclear weapons can determine policy decisions, and both Russia and the U.S. will influence each other in this realm. The biggest areas of influence Russia has over the U.S. are the pursuit of disinformation, in proxy conflicts around the world, and in election interference. With Trump at the helm, you can add political sympathy, Trump’s direct connections, and all the reasons mentioned above as potential branches of influence Russia holds over the United States. If you don’t think this is a worrying aspect now, the number of avenues Russia can pursue to increase its influence is certainly worrying, and throughout the next four years, it could increase further. Trump’s arrival for his second term promised change internationally. In four years, could we be looking at a completely different internal America? If this led to a fruitful relationship between Russia and the U.S., could any benefits towards global peace be outweighed by tensions rising between the United States and other nations around the world?

With a Trump-Russia connection, what was once considered a conspiracy theory by some could be growing in possibility. I’m also interested in whether we are entering an age of economic coercion. It has been seen with New York Mayor Eric Adams. In return for Adams finding illegal immigrants within New York, Trump has suspended his corruption charges. But Adams now has a sword over his head. Is Putin holding a sword above Trump? In considering this worrying picture, are we entering a world where political influence is bought, not gained? In this world, it wouldn’t matter if Trump’s efforts to play into Russia’s hands were accidental or purposeful. The connection is there, and everyone has a price.

Photo by micheile henderson on Unsplash

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Concluding Remarks

A key problem here is that Donald Trump’s overinflated ego hasn’t died down in over four decades, and it shows no signs of doing so today. The global system heavily benefits this man, who has been bailed out time and time again with little consequence, and has eventually wriggled his way into the most powerful office in the world. Before pausing tariffs, he announced on Truth Social that now is a good time to buy stocks. A volatility spike can be seen prior to this, likely where insiders piled into the market knowing they were going to make easy money as the market bounced. Trump then even bragged about how much money he made in these moves. This is a joke when he paints himself and his administration as “for the people”. He has no awareness of the reality of the lives of everyday people, nor does he care for anybody but himself. This man is untouchable, and that’s a deep problem, especially when there exists evidence of connections to Russia, because who is going to stop Trump?

There isn’t refutable evidence that confirms a connection here, but the world is a complex web of interactions, and the Trump-Russia connection certainly has complexities that lean on the side of extensive, and have done so for decades. We will see throughout Trump’s Presidency if clear signs of self-sabotage continue. In such a case, the evidence of such a connection could become much clearer with time.

But take note, there are a few possibilities here. Trump‘s sabotage could be intentional for the benefit of Russia, or it could be for his personal gain to the detriment of the United States. It could also be naivety that his disruption will benefit the system, and although this wouldn’t make him a traitor, it’s incredibly reckless. Whichever explanation you believe, serious questions about Trump’s judgment and loyalty should be asked, but in his untouchable position, they likely won’t be.

This is my final post for now on the topic of Trump and his efforts in pursuit of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. On Thursday, I’ll return to the Global Questions Series, before next week when I’ll begin breaking down another way that Trump could be committing self-sabotage: His tariff strategy. What have been the biggest developments we’ve seen up to this point in the tariff timeline, and how much pain can everyone take? Is Trump in the driver’s seat here, or will he soon realise his economic bus isn’t as indestructible as he thought? Come back for these discussions over the next week.

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Other News In Geopolitics This Week:

• 5 Companies Sue Trump Over Tariffs

• AMD Plunges After US Chip Export Controls

• AMD Prepares First Made In America Chip

• American Hijacks Plane In Belize, Demanding Fuel and A Path Out The Country

• Are the U.S. and China Pursuing A Deal? Trump Praises Xi Relationship

• ASML Misses On Orders

• Bank of Canada Keeps Rates At 2.75%

• Bernie Sanders At Coachella

• Bessent’s Strategy To Attempt To Isolate China From The Rest of the World

• Biden Judge Blocks Trump’s Effort To End “X” Gender Marker On Passports

• Blinken Says US Rare Earths Deal Originated With Zelenskyy

• California Sues Trump

• Canada Waives Retaliatory Tariffs On US-Made Cars and Trucks

• China and Vietnam Sign 45 Agreements

• China Cancels Boeing Orders

• China Debates How To Handle Seized Crypto

• China Tariffs Up To 245%

• China Tests Non-Nuclear Hydrogen Bomb

• China’s Coal Imports Dip 6%

• China’s New Trade Negotiator

• Chinese Satellite Imaging Company Helping Houthis Target U.S. Warships, According To U.S.

• Court Rules Google Holds Monopoly Power of Online Ad Tech

• Dalio Fears Something “Worse Than A Recession”

• Dollar Index Falls Below $100

• ECB Cuts Rates

• El Salvador Won’t Return Alleged MS-13 “Terrorist” To US

• European Travel To the U.S. Drops Dramatically

• Explosion In Northrop Grumman Factory In Utah

• FAA Announces More Drone Tests In New Jersey

• France Expels 12 Algerian Diplomats

• Huge Number of IRS Employees To Take Buyout

• Indonesia Denies Russia Asked For Base Access

• Intel To Sell 51% of Altera To Silver Lake

• IRS Asked To Revoke Harvard’s Tax-Exempt Status

• Is the U.S. Considering Abandoning Ukraine

• Israel Allows Largest Group of Jews Ever To Pray At Al-Aqsa Mosque

• Japan Considers Easing Car Safety Standards As Part of U.S. Trade Deal

• META Monopoly Trial Begins

• Monster Budget Cut Proposed For Federal Health Agencies

• North Korea Supplying 100% of Artillery Shells Russia Uses In Ukraine

• NVIDIA Announces Engines of AI Infrastructure Will Be Built In America

• NVIDIA CEO Travels To China

• NVIDIA Falls As Trump Places Licenses On H20 Chip Sales To China

• Palantir Building Operating System For ICE To Track Migrants

• Panama City Approves BTC and Crypto Payments

• Russia and Belarus Ready To Amp Up Spy War Against NATO: Kremlin Intel Chief

• Russia Declares Energy Strike Moratorium Has Ended

• Russia Targets Major Surge In Natural Gas Exports By 2050

• S&P Suffers Death Cross

• Satellite Images Show China’s Nuclear Submarine Force

• Saudi Arabia To Pay Off Syria’s World Bank Debt

• Saudi Defence Chief Visits Iran As Israel Talks War

• Stocks Fall As Powell Mentions Stagflation

• Temu and Shein Slash Ad Spend

• Trump Announces Free Flights For Self-Deportees

• Trump Halts Offshore Wind Project Near New York

• Trump Official Who Shuttered USAID Fired After Clashes With Rubio

• Trump Praises “Big Progress” In Japanese Trade Talks

• Trump Ready To Recognise Crimea As Russian

• Trump Rejected Israeli Attack Plan On Iran

• Trump Says Powell “Playing Politics” With Rate Cuts

• Trump Signs Order To Help States Import Low-Cost Medicine

• Ukraine Agrees To Easter Truce, But Says Putin Can’t Be Trusted

• Ukraine To Sign Minerals Deal Next Week As Rubio Issues Ultimatum

• “USA Products” Searches Surge

• U.S. and EU Condemn Russian Strikes On Sumy

• U.S. and Russia Preparing to Hold Hockey Matches In St Petersburg and Washington

• U.S.-Iran Second Talk Ends In Italy. Agreed To A Third

• U.S. Mulls Ground War In Yemen Via Mercenaries

• U.S. Plans Fees For Incoming Chinese Ships

• U.S. Tells Israel It Will Begin Drawback Of Troops in Syria

• U.S.-China Cyber Meeting Uncovered

• UK Supreme Court Rules Trans-Woman Isn’t A Woman

• Ukraine Parliament Votes To Prolong Martial Law Despite Trump’s Criticism

• White House Report on COVID Origins

• World Bank Comes Under Scrutiny For Tajikistan Hydro Project

• Would Trump Consider Delisting Chinese Stocks?

• Xi Visits Malaysia and Cambodia

• Yemen Strike From U.S. Destroys Oil Port

• Zelenskyy Urges Trump To Visit Ukraine Before Deal

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Sources:

• https://open.substack.com/pub/craigunger?r=tdkfn&utm_medium=ios

• https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/connections-trump-putin-russia-ties-chart-flynn-page-manafort-sessions-214868/

• https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Links_between_Trump_associates_and_Russian_officials

• https://swalwell.house.gov/issues/russia-trump-his-administration-s-ties

• https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-russiagate-documents-crossfire-hurricane-binder-2058427

• https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/30/enduring-mystery-trump-relationship-russia/

• https://www.reuters.com/world/what-do-we-know-about-putin-trump-relationship-2025-02-13/