Geopolitics Review - 20th January 2025
Syria Looking Forward
Contents
Introduction
The Latest Developments
Looking Forward
Concluding Remarks
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Bitesize Edition
Over the past month, I’ve released posts on the history of Syria and the events that led to and occurred throughout the Syrian Civil War. Today, I’ll dive into the collapse of the Assad Regime and its aftermath. With the collapse unfolding over a month ago, more pieces have fallen into place, while others remain to be placed on the field of play.
Despite the pace of HTS’ moves against the former Assad Regime, they are still far from controlling the entirety of Syria. The Kurds remain in the North East, and Israel is pushing further into the Golan Heights. Multiple states and non-state actors remain interested in the future of Syria and will influence its direction moving forward. Who are these groups, and how will they interact with one another? Let’s dive in.
Introduction
In this final part of my miniseries on Syria, we’ll look towards the future. What scenarios could Syria see itself heading towards over the coming months and years, and how will these shifts within Syria affect the Middle East and the wider world?
The Latest Developments
By some accounts, the rebels informed Turkey that they were hoping to launch an assault on the Assad regime over six months ago. This was approved by the Turks without anybody else’s knowledge, but it wasn’t expected to be as successful as it was. When the scale of the surrendering of Assad’s forces was clear, the United States and Israel moved to take advantage of the situation.
There were whisperings in recent months of the potential for improved Turkey-Syria relations. If this had occurred, would we have seen the fall of Assad? The Turks offered Assad normalisation in exchange for aid against the Kurds in Northern Syria. The weaver of the geopolitical timeline that Syria has travelled through appears to be the Turks, who had both sides in the palm of their hands. When it became clear that a deal with Assad wouldn’t occur, the rebel strategy unfolded. Even without direct involvement, the Turkish would have ended in a stronger geopolitical position. They set up the playing field, and so it comes as no shock when they ultimately found themselves in a winning position.
So, who are the rebels? The group known as HTS controlled territory in Syria’s north, in the Idlib province. However, we’ve come to know the group better through their leader, who we saw in an interview with CNN on December 6th. He is a former member of Al Qaeda who says he has put this past behind him. Previously, he was known as Al-Julani but now goes by Ahmed al-Sharaa.
He states in the interview that a huge contributing reason to this occurring now was the institutions formed in the liberated areas in Idlib, and the military reforms that also occurred, bringing together many different groups with one common goal to remove the Assad regime. His group through ruling in Idlib for many years have established what they call the Syrian Salvation Government which includes a Prime Minister and government departments. It has functioned with state-like features since 2017. However, HTS is still a designated terrorist organisation, with a $10M bounty on al-Julani in the United States (this has since been removed). The leader also stated he would ensure all groups and minorities within Syria would be allowed to live there and would be fully respected for their beliefs. The group has, however, arrested critics in Idlib in the past. Al-Julani says he would like to be judged by his actions, not his words. The world will certainly be waiting patiently to do just this.
Secular rule under Assad was seen as a tyrannical system. Hence the new leadership is pursuing something different. They will pursue Islamist rule with Sharia Law, but even then, HTS has stated that they don’t particularly know what this system of rule will look like. Syria remains in a state of flux.
We now turn to the geopolitical actors who have benefited from this situation and those who have suffered.
Did Turkey, the United States, and Israel work together in this? Turkey-backed rebel groups in Syria for years such as the SNA and if Syria becomes more stable, the Turks will have less of a refugee crisis to manage and could focus attention on the Kurds. Since the collapse, the United States has bombed ISIS targets in Syria to ensure they couldn’t gain strength amid the chaos, and Israel created a buffer zone in the Golan Heights and has pushed into Syria proper.
Russia is preoccupied in Ukraine, but also held exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean, and launched airstrikes on some rebels in Syria. Russia, however, is q clear loser here. They have lost two bases, an air base in Hmeinim and a naval base in Tartus. They were spotted pulling equipment out of their only Mediterranean Naval base, and the air base was frequently used as a bounce point for Russians heading to Africa. These assets have been relocated to Eastern Libya.
Some analysts have stated Russia’s attempted constitutional reform in Syria from the Astana Summit, rejected by Assad, could return to the table. However, with Russia cutting their losses and leaving Syria completely, the chances of this occurring are dramatically slim.
Before the collapse, Iran sent militias from Iraq to help maintain the Assad Regime, since they benefited from the land corridor connecting Iran-proper, through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, giving Iran access to the Mediterranean. Now, a part of that path has been destroyed. Iran is most certainly one of the biggest losers in this event, and the speed at which the Syrian Government declined is the opposite of a show of strength for the Iranians. The Iranians have also lost their front-line access to Israel, and a bridge to a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Looking Forward
The most important factor here to consider is the attitudes of the Syrian people. These are everyday people like me and you and many of them feel hopeful for the future of their state. I hope this optimism rewards them with a better quality of life than they had under the Assad regime. After all, it’s the people who are the most important in any geopolitical issue such as this.
As I said in the introduction, however, there are many nations who can influence Syria‘s future direction, and many could be to blame if an improved quality of life for everyday Syrians doesn’t occur. We hence do have to explore the incentives to remain or leave Syria for these geopolitical actors, and who steps into any emerging power vacuums.
Firstly, do the losers attempt to bounce back? Does Iran pursue a nuclear weapon, or an alternative corridor to Hezbollah who appear geographically isolated from the other Iranian proxies? Do the Russians double down efforts in Ukraine with redirected resources to the front lines? All scenarios are possible, especially in the Middle East, but I’d argue Iran is licking its wounds after a tough 2024, and Russia has accepted its losses and departed. Some analysts are painting this as a victory for Russia. Yes, they lost money put into upholding Syria’s Assad regime, but relations with Russia have already been touted as “important” by a Syrian opposition representative. Russian involvement could still continue from a distance.
An interesting development is where the winners go from here. Trump’s United States doesn’t wish to be active in Syria any longer, but HTS has made threats against the Kurds in Northern Syria. Does the United States stay in their support of the Kurds, putting them on a potential collision course with the Turks, or do they depart as Trump hopes? Back in 2019, Trump hoped to pull out of Syria, but a Turkish offensive against the Kurds saw the United States impose sanctions on Turkey and they maintain a presence in Syria today. A deal nine days later saw the sanctions removed, but there is a precedent here.
This leaves Israel to discuss. With the Israelis seeking to influence the future of the Middle East and to grow their own strength, does this set them on a collision course with the Turks in a reimagined Syria? Israel has attacked former military equipment of the SAA at Mezzah Airbase in Damascus and ships in Latakia. They have since also launched direct attacks against HTS. Syria has been liberated from Assad and Iran, yet Israel and Netanyahu continue to launch attacks on Syria, stating they want a buffer zone up to the Purple Line, which was established as part of a 1974 ceasefire. The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force sits in this buffer zone, but Israel seems set on securing this itself. Worryingly, some members of Israel’s cabinet have discussed setting their sights on Damascus in the past. The future is still very much uncertain in the Middle East, especially if Israel continues its current charge. If this Israeli charge does continue, normalisation potential with Saudi Arabia would surely be weakened, and previous deals as part of the Abraham Accords would be tense. This would likely make Trump unhappy, who is pushing heavily for an end to wars around the world in his second term, and pushed heavily to finalize the Abraham Accoeds in his first term.
For Syria, it’s likely they won’t become a democracy. However, as I stated above, if Syrians' everyday lives are improved, this should be celebrated. The hope is that a level of continued stability can emerge from this collapse in which this improvement in quality of life can happen. Power vacuums can be difficult to navigate, especially with a large number of groups involved in Syria. We see this in Myanmar today, with countless armed groups controlling their own small territories and clashing with many other groups around them. The hope will be that Syria doesn’t turn into a country of gang territorial warfare.
Even if the rebels emerge as the form of governance in Syria moving forward, they have an unproven track record. As I stated, the rebel leader is a former member of Al Qaeda. This isn’t the most glittering of resumes. Once again, if this group does emerge as leaders, time will tell how they will govern. It won’t be a democracy, but anything from an Afghanistan Taliban, a Myanmar-style gang warfare, or Islamic rule is possible.
The SDF to the North could clash with the Turkish-backed SNA in Northern Syria since the SDF is a spinoff of the Kurdish PKK. The SDF has currently been enforcing curfews in Northern Syria, and Turkey has amassed troops on its border while also criticising the Israelis for their geopolitical actions. In summary, moves are certainly been made. Any conflict here has the potential to drag HTS and other smaller groups in Syria back into the civil war it waited years to escape from.
Yet many are optimistic. In Syria, interviews on the streets show that people are hopeful. The EU is planning repatriation to rebuild the expected $8-11B of rebuild costs. Yet Syria is in a conflict trap, and development will be necessary to break it. This requires no civil war. Developments will continue to unfold over the coming weeks and months here. Even over the last few days, we’ve had the rebels banning the entry of Russian, Iranian, and Israeli goods into the country, and the Syrian finance minister rejected the SDF’s calls for a military bloc in the North East. This has seen clashes erupt between the SDF and Turkish-backed groups. The story here is far from over.
Concluding Remarks
I’ve written this post with very little mention of the Kurds directly. I’ll discuss this in a post I release next month, as well as what is occurring in Libya as part of the Hidden Wars series. In the coming weeks, I’ll also cover the latest Gaza ceasefire. There is a lot to discuss, so subscribe if you don’t want to miss any of the upcoming updates.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Biden Issues Executive Order For Data Centres On Federal Land
Biden Unveils FDA Proposal To Lower Cigarette Nicotine Levels
India Expects No Disruption To Russian Oil Supply Until March
Israel Launches First Direct Attack Against Al Jolani in Syria
Pentagon Admits Russia Making Incremental Gains In Eastern Ukraine
Switzerland and Serbia Offer To Host Trump-Putin Peace Talks
Washington Removes Cuba From State Sponsor of Terrorism List
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Sources:
https://www.rferl.org/amp/russia-syria-africa-libya/33247673.html
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/816818
https://www.vox.com/world/2019/10/15/20915418/trump-sanctions-turkey-syria-invasion-kurds
https://kyivindependent.com/syria-bans-goods-from-russia-iran-and-israel/
https://shafaq.com/amp/en/World/Clashes-escalate-in-Northeastern-Syria-as-SDF-repels-attacks