Geopolitics Review - 18th November 2024
Hidden Wars: Where Is Myanmar Heading?
Contents
Introduction
Timeline Since 2021
The Geography of the Myanmar Conflict
Where Do We Go From Here?
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Last week, I started by exploring the history of the conflict in Myanmar after independence in 1948. Some aspects of today’s conflict started back in 1949, and hence have existed for over 70 years. Yet, this conflict receives a lack of attention in the media, and this is an injustice.
I also detailed the many ethnic groups involved in the current iteration of this conflict in Myanmar that arose after a 2021 military coup.
From here, I’ll assess the timeline of key events that have brought us to today. I’ll then explore which groups have momentum in this conflict, and the potential directions of travel as we move forward in Myanmar.
Introduction
It sure feels nice to slow down even slightly in what has been a chaotic year in geopolitics. I’m sure this is only a temporary lull in excitement, but I’m going to take advantage of it by discussing an issue that receives very little coverage. Today, I’ll continue to discuss the current iteration of civil war in Myanmar after a 2021 military coup, but this conflict’s roots started to grow decades before this. Let’s dive in.
Timeline Since 2021
February 1st, 2021: Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) overthrows the elected government, citing unproven allegations of election fraud in 2020.
February - March 2021: Nationwide protests erupt with millions demanding a return to democracy. The military responds with violent crackdowns.
March 27th, 2021: The military kills over 100 protestors in a single day. Ethnic armed groups such as the KNLA and KIA launched attacks on military positions.
April 16th, 2021: The National Unity Government is formed by ousted NLD lawmakers.
May 2021: The National Unity Government forms the PDF, the People’s Defence Forces, an armed wing of the group.
June 2021: The military escalates air strikes on the Karen State, Kachin State, and Sagaing Region.
March 2022: The Arakan Army resumes clashes with the Tatmadaw in Rakhine State.
July 25th, 2022: The military executes four pro-democracy activists.
December 2022: The Tatmadaw bombs a concert organised by the KIO, killing over 50 people. This sparked widespread international criticism, but still, not enough attention was given to the conflict in Myanmar.
January - February 2023: Fighting escalates between the Tatmadaw and groups in Magway and Chin State.
April 11th, 2023: A military airstrike hits a village in Sagaing, killing over 160 people.
August 2023: The UN reports 1.5 million displacements and over 4000 civilians have been killed due to the conflict.
September - October 2023: The AA in Rakhine State reaches a temporary ceasefire with the junta.
Ongoing: Both sides have escalated attacks on infrastructure. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen and the international community remains divided on whether to pursue sanctions or dialogue.
The Geography of The Myanmar Conflict
76 years of conflict is a long time. This makes the conflict in Myanmar one of the longest currently occurring in the world.
With so many individual parties here, we need to focus on clashes between groups. With this conflict involving so many groups, determining alliances is often a fickle exercise, especially when many groups can experience in-fighting amongst themselves. Misunderstandings can lead to skirmishes, but generally, the groups are aligned in the following way in this conflict:
Note: In last week’s piece, I provided a detailed description of each group actively involved in this conflict. I’d recommend checking that out first to gain an understanding of these different groups.
Tatmadaw Allies: PNA, RCSS, NDAA, NMSP.
Opposed to Tatmadaw: PDF, AA, Chin Resistance, KIA, TNLA, MNDAA, KNLA, Karenni Resistance, PNLA.
Neutral: Wa State (UWSA), SSPP, ZRA.
We can also break down the country by geographical and ideological alliances:
Northern Alliance: KIA, TNLA, MNDAA, AA.
Pro-Democracy Coalition: PDF, KNLA, Karenni Resistance, Chin Militias.
Sticking with the geography of Myanmar, let’s explore where the fighting is most intense, and between who?
Sagaing Region: PDF/National Unity Government vs Tatmadaw
Kayah State: KNDF, KA, PDF vs Tatmadaw
Kachin State: KIA vs Tatmadaw
Rakhine State: AA vs Tatmadaw
Shan State: TNLA, SSPP vs Tatmadaw
Kayin State: KNLA, PDF vs Tatmadaw
Chin State: CDF, PDF vs Tatmadaw
Who has momentum on their side? Could any big changes reverse this momentum or is the war in Myanmar one of attrition?
The two images below show the differences between October 2023 and November 2024:
Let’s explore the differences between the two:
Rakhine State: The AA has advanced heavily down the coast in the region against the Tatmadaw.
Shan State: The RCSS has lost gains to the SSPP.
Kachin State: The Kachin Independence Army has secured their territory controlled in the state.
Outside of these clear changes, the conflict still remains at a relative standstill.
Where Do We Go From Here?
The international community doesn’t know where to start with the sheer number of groups involved here. Sanctions or dialogue? Has anybody made any progress towards either that could see us move forward in this stalemated conflict? Or is this conflict another underappreciated conflict on a global scale with a sheer lack of effort given to it? I’d heavily suggest that the latter is more representative of the current truth regarding the conflict in Myanmar.
The deep history of this conflict paints it as one that in my eyes shouldn’t be ignored. The period of British colonialism relied on ethnic tensions and divisions to maintain control and instability. This environment persists to this day. The ethnic groups together have no incentive to agree and limit the fighting. So, what agreements can portions of the diverse ethnic communities in Myanmar agree on? Perhaps an opposition against the military, a commitment to the protection of minorities, or the pursuit of a fair political system representing all could be an idea through which many ethnic groups could rally. Without efforts from outside Myanmar, however, this remains purely hypothetical.
This hypothetical future is likely to remain due to the existence of shifting power dynamics and the regular occurrence of military coups in Myanmar’s history. In such a volatile situation where any one geopolitical player lacks the power to control the country, or where no individual player is powerful enough to limit the military taking complete political control, how do we get out of this cycle? The military has been entrenched in politics since the coup in 1962. How do we separate politics and military in a nation where no institutions exist to uphold splitting the two?
Any moves towards democracy have seen the military retain power. The NLD won a landslide election in 2015, but the Tatmadaw retained significant control after the 2008 constitution ensured they possessed 25% of parliamentary seats. The Tatmadaw also control the defence, border affairs, and home affairs ministries. Hence this conflict has been fuelled by the military’s refusal to decentralise their own authority that they always intended to maintain, and have in some capacity since 1962. The 2020 election once again being won by the NLD saw the Tatmadaw launch the 2021 coup, fearing their erosion of power in Myanmar. The military has sought to limit ethnic self-determination, while the rest of the country calls for greater representation and autonomy. Of course, many nations of the world today exist with diverse ethnicities in their populations. This is maintained through institutions, and representation of our differences on multiple levels of society, which themselves are celebrated. In countries where groups feel underrepresented, the fight won’t ever be over. These groups must be represented on a political level as is everybody’s human right, and the military must stop interfering in politics to maintain individual power. While some ethnic groups seek complete independence, some seek political autonomy, and others fight against the military, they all possess a clear similarity. Between them all, they have seen promises broken for decades after the Tatmadaw continued to violate agreements. It’s these issues where the wider international community is required to step in. When the military and politics within a country aren’t working in tandem, a dramatic change is needed.
Yet, the differences in approach between different geopolitical actors in the international community are yet another issue to address. The Tatmadaw seem to be successful in bypassing any sanctions that have been put upon them. China and Russia have blocked stronger measures against the military junta in the UN Security Council, and easily facilitate the bypassing of sanctions. ASEAN has also struggled to reach an agreement on approaches moving forward.
It’s clear to me that this conflict is another that has been ignored internationally. As a start, effort needs to be provided on an international scale, with resources provided to achieve some progress with said resources. A determination of how dialogue and sanctions could facilitate key goals, and where resources should be aligned would be key first steps. Without these first steps, this seems to be yet another war set to continue, cast aside on the international stage.
From here, the powers in the area, namely China and India, would surely benefit from more peaceful borders. The rest of the world pursuing incentives for China and India to make an effort to pursue peace in Myanmar would be a potential prerequisite step toward progress.
However, we find ourselves at a standstill, with no steps taken at all. From this point, the main aim should be moving an inch forward, instead of a constant march backwards. Otherwise, this conflict risks becoming yet another forgotten war still raging in the background of our geopolitical world.
Concluding Remarks
It’s clear the conflict in Myanmar needs much more awareness surrounding the fact it’s even occurring. Another issue that is rising to the surface that requires more attention is that of rising Canadian and Indian tensions, especially linked to the region of Khalistan. Come back for a discussion on this topic next week, unless something chaotic occurs in the world of geopolitics, which is very possible.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Ali Larijani, Senior Advisor To Iran's Supreme Leader, Visiting Lebanon
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Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Appears With A Missing Right Eye and Damaged Left Hand
Prosecutor’s Office Against Postponement of Netanyahu’s Testimony
Trump Selects Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy As Government Efficiency Officials
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