Geopolitics Review - 18th November 2024
Hidden Wars: Where Is Myanmar Heading?
Contents
Introduction
Timeline Since 2021
The Geography of the Myanmar Conflict
Where Do We Go From Here?
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Last week, I started by exploring the history of the conflict in Myanmar after independence in 1948. Some aspects of today’s conflict started back in 1949, and hence have existed for over 70 years. Yet, this conflict receives a lack of attention in the media, and this is an injustice.
I also detailed the many ethnic groups involved in the current iteration of this conflict in Myanmar that arose after a 2021 military coup.
From here, I’ll assess the timeline of key events that have brought us to today. I’ll then explore which groups have momentum in this conflict, and the potential directions of travel as we move forward in Myanmar.
Introduction
It sure feels nice to slow down even slightly in what has been a chaotic year in geopolitics. I’m sure this is only a temporary lull in excitement, but I’m going to take advantage of it by discussing an issue that receives very little coverage. Today, I’ll continue to discuss the current iteration of civil war in Myanmar after a 2021 military coup, but this conflict’s roots started to grow decades before this. Let’s dive in.
Timeline Since 2021
February 1st, 2021: Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) overthrows the elected government, citing unproven allegations of election fraud in 2020.
February - March 2021: Nationwide protests erupt with millions demanding a return to democracy. The military responds with violent crackdowns.
March 27th, 2021: The military kills over 100 protestors in a single day. Ethnic armed groups such as the KNLA and KIA launched attacks on military positions.
April 16th, 2021: The National Unity Government is formed by ousted NLD lawmakers.
May 2021: The National Unity Government forms the PDF, the People’s Defence Forces, an armed wing of the group.
June 2021: The military escalates air strikes on the Karen State, Kachin State, and Sagaing Region.
March 2022: The Arakan Army resumes clashes with the Tatmadaw in Rakhine State.
July 25th, 2022: The military executes four pro-democracy activists.
December 2022: The Tatmadaw bombs a concert organised by the KIO, killing over 50 people. This sparked widespread international criticism, but still, not enough attention was given to the conflict in Myanmar.
January - February 2023: Fighting escalates between the Tatmadaw and groups in Magway and Chin State.
April 11th, 2023: A military airstrike hits a village in Sagaing, killing over 160 people.
August 2023: The UN reports 1.5 million displacements and over 4000 civilians have been killed due to the conflict.
September - October 2023: The AA in Rakhine State reaches a temporary ceasefire with the junta.
Ongoing: Both sides have escalated attacks on infrastructure. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen and the international community remains divided on whether to pursue sanctions or dialogue.
The Geography of The Myanmar Conflict
76 years of conflict is a long time. This makes the conflict in Myanmar one of the longest currently occurring in the world.
With so many individual parties here, we need to focus on clashes between groups. With this conflict involving so many groups, determining alliances is often a fickle exercise, especially when many groups can experience in-fighting amongst themselves. Misunderstandings can lead to skirmishes, but generally, the groups are aligned in the following way in this conflict:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Geopolitics Explained to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.