Geopolitics Review - 16th September 2024

The 1968 US Election - A Flashback To Today?

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Who Was Lyndon B. Johnson?

3. 1968 Election Run-Up

4. 1968 Election Aftermath

5. US 6th Party System

6. Transition To The 7th Party System

7. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• At the end of July, rumours began circulating that Joe Biden would be pulling out of the race as the Democratic candidate. A few days later, the decision was confirmed. Whether originating from Biden himself, or moves made by Nancy Pelosi and others, Biden’s 2024 presidential campaign was no more. In his place, it was quickly ascertained that enough delegates supported Kamala Harris.

• As this process unfolded, I questioned if this had happened before. On March 31st, 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson, also a Democrat, announced he wouldn’t be running in that year’s election.

• It was a tight race, with Republican Richard Nixon eventually winning the Presidency after Johnson stepped down. Looking deeper into this scenario, how close a race was it? What key policies and events of the time defined the election campaigns, and how much did the third independent candidate impact the final results? Find out more below.

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Introduction

My analysis of the US election on the state level via hypothesis testing is taking more time than anticipated, hence this week I decided to flashback to the last time a President stepped down from running for re-election. This occurred when Lyndon Johnson didn’t seek re-election in 1968.

As is unfolding during this election cycle, news is moving quickly, and many narratives are weaving together simultaneously. This is exactly what also unfolded in 1968.

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Who Was Lyndon B. Johnson?

Lyndon Baines Johnson was the 36th President of the United States from 1963 to 1969. He was thrown into the job after the assassination of JFK on November 22nd, 1963. In 1964, he won in a landslide.

The big policies of the time were civil rights, social welfare, and education. The Civil Rights Act of 1964, Medicare, Medicaid, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965 were all launched during his Presidency.

The biggest issue of the time was the Vietnam War. The war in Vietnam grew more unpopular as the war progressed, and this was felt by Johnson’s own ratings.

As a result of his declining popularity, Johnson declined to seek re-election in the 1968 Presidential election, announcing the end of March 1968. Richard Nixon ran for the Republicans, Hubert Humphrey for the Democrats, and George Wallace for the American Independent Party.

Outside of the candidates running, I’m interested in the general political environment. Today, politics is deemed to be fragmenting in the United States. One of Harris’ narratives she’s running with is just this idea. She blames Trump for the fragmentation, stating she’ll be a president for all. Interestingly, politics was just as fragmented in 1968.

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1968 Election Run-Up

Johnson had attempted to implement the “credibility gap”, remaining optimistic while the reality on the ground in Vietnam was nothing of the sort. He was also bested significantly in the Democratic primaries by Senator Eugene McCarthy, who was an anti-Vietnam war candidate. The writing was on the wall for Johnson.

The election run-up included the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr on April 4th, 1968. This sparked hundreds of riots in the US and reinforced the civil rights movement and racial tensions that occurred throughout the decade.

Two months later, on June 5th, 1968, Robert Kennedy was assassinated after winning the California Democratic primary. It has been assessed that his 24-year-old killer, a Palestinian, was against RFK’s strong support for Israel, especially during the Six-Day War of 1967. The nation grieved for RFK, just as it had for JFK five years earlier. It was clear that the United States found itself in a period of national chaos.

The Democratic National Convention in August 1968 was overshadowed by anti-war protests. The Democrats were seemingly on the ropes. This was confirmed by the election result, which saw Richard Nixon win the Electoral College Vote and hence the Presidency.