Geopolitics Review - 13th January 2025

Hidden Wars: Syria - The Present

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The Syrian Civil War

3. Who Is Involved, And Why?

4. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• With most large geopolitical stories that emerge unexpectedly, I find it useful to explore the past that led us down the road to the present day. From the present day, we can then begin to piece together and formulate what the future could look like.

• In 2011, as a consequence of the Arab Spring, the Syrian Civil War erupted. In the chaos, many groups were vying for power and influence, including the Syrian government, Syrian rebels, the Kurds, and ISIS. The field of play in Syria has undergone vast changes since 2011.

• There are also smaller non-state actors fighting in Syria and many countries that had an active role in the country, including the United States, Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Before exploring what Syria could look like as we move into 2025, let’s break down the story of the last 14 years in war-torn Syria.

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Introduction

After a short break to cover my 2024 reflections and 2025 scenario analysis pieces, I return to my analysis of Syria today. My previous piece explored the history, and so today I’ll dive into the Syrian Civil War, and how we found ourselves on the doorstep of the collapse of the Assad Regime. I’ll also explore the sheer number of groups involved here, whether states or non-state actors. Let’s dive in.

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The Syrian Civil War

Throughout 2011, we saw protests and civil uprisings. This arrived in Syria in Damascus and Aleppo in March 2011. The same month saw four protestors shot and killed by the Syrian Army, and the burning down of a Ba’ath Party headquarters. What started as a protest demanding democratic reforms was suddenly targeting an overthrow of the Assad government. The biggest protest occurred on the 1st of July 2011, when 100,000 people gathered to protest against the government.

From July 2011 until April 2012, we saw militias rise within Syria. Kurdish forces emerged in the North East and opposition groups emerged in batches, especially in the northwest. After a previous ceasefire attempt failed, the UN first announced that Syria had entered a civil war in June 2012.

Over the next year, Kurdish and opposition forces expanded massively to the detriment of Assad and government forces.

This was short-lived, however, as 2013 and 2014 marked the Assad government forces regrouping and regaining some territory. The opposition rebels especially suffered as a new group entered the fray: ISIL.

Syria In June 2014

Starting in June 2014, ISIL seized territory in Iraq and heavy weapons and equipment from the Iraqi army. They brought some of this equipment and weaponry into their assault on Syria since the border between Iraq and Syria was a weak one. ISIL split off from Al Qaeda in 2014 and aimed to establish a caliphate, and Syria was in flux with many different groups pursuing different goals. ISIL could hence easily take advantage of this chaos to sow further chaos, which is one of their ultimate goals. One thing is clear, ISIL had no allies in Syria.

The United States joined the conflict in September 2014 by bombing ISIL in Syria. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan also were involved as foreign partners of the United States.

But even with the United States’ involvement, ISIL reached their maximum territorial control in the Summer of 2015 after another offensive against multiple parties involved. Assad’s government appeared on the ropes.

In September 2015, Assad asked the Russians to get involved. The Russian Air Forces began air strikes against ISIL and the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army (FSA). The United States moved to supply the Kurds and many opposition groups in response to Russia’s arrival. This civil war had developed into a proxy war. October saw a failed peace attempt in Vienna after the future of Bashar al-Assad was disagreed upon. Iran was also involved in these peace talks, with them and the Russians supporting the Assad regime. Barack Obama stated he couldn’t see a situation where peace could be found if Assad remained in power. Little did he know at the time that this conflict would rage for close to a decade before Assad fell.

The next two years saw Turkey shoot down a Russian plane, and the Kurds expanded in the North, as well as the rebels in the South. Turkey started military intervention in the North in 2016 in what the Turks named Operation Euphrates Shield.

Syria In May 2017

The fighting continued, with Russia stating in October 2017 that ISIL had been removed completely from Syria. In reality, they remained in small pockets, but since this rapid downfall in power occurred, they haven’t re-emerged. The Turks also launched a second cross-border operation with Operation Olive Branch targeting the Kurds in Syria.

Syria in February 2018

Aside from further Turkish operations against the Kurds on the border, the world started to receive less news about the civil war in Syria over the following years. The conflict had reached a stalemate, with many geopolitical actors still vying for greater power and control in Syria but making little progress.

I’m aware that this isn’t an in-depth analysis of the Syrian Civil War, but books could be written on this conflict. I hope this provides a surface-level analysis of the groups involved here, and the changes in territorial control that occurred during this period.

In 2023, the conflict was officially described as “frozen.” Very little territorial ground was made by any group. Syria had been reinvited into the Arab League, and relations with Syria were restarted with many countries. Things seemed to be trending in a more positive direction than the previous twelve years of civil war. Next week, I’ll explore how we managed to move from this point to the rapid collapse of the Assad regime. But for now, let’s explore the key players involved here and why they have interests in the future of Syria, even after the Assad collapse.

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Who Is Involved, and Why?