Geopolitics Review - 12th August 2024

Middle East Updates

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The Escalatory Spiral Continues

3. Israel’s Northern Region In Flux

4. The Israel-Iran Tensions

5. Historical Precedents

6. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• We’ve entered a cycle of escalation in the Middle East. The last few weeks have seen the deaths of Hezbollah commander Fuak Shukr, Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif, and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The attack on Haniyeh was notable since it took place while he was in Tehran.

• Israel hasn’t stated it was them who enacted the assassination. However, there are reports that the assassination took place aided by Mossad embedded within Iran. This wouldn’t be the first time this has occurred. One thing is clear, it is a security issue for Iran that this occurred on its territory, and was potentially a plot sourced within the country.

• With Iran believing the attack was of Israeli origin, there is now a huge diplomatic rush to avoid an Iranian response. Israel has stated if Iran responds, they will respond immediately. There is potential for the conflict to run away from us. Many believe a response from Iran could be two-pronged, with one attack coming from Hezbollah and one from Iran directly.

• I’ll explore the historical precedent of assassinations on Iranian soil, and the events in April that marked Iran’s first direct attack on Israel. Are we set for a similar direct attack, a response through Iran’s proxies, or a de-escalation due to diplomatic efforts? Let’s explore below.

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Introduction

If you look at who started this current conflict in the Middle East, you’ll find that many parties had an input. Hamas for their October 7th attack. Iran in April with their UAV and missile attack on Israel, and continued rhetoric involving the death of Israel. Israel itself for its complete destruction of Gaza. the United States for supplying Israel with weapons for decades. The British and French for their colonisation of the Middle East, splitting the territory and resources for their own gain and then leaving the region in flux. The Ottomans for buying territory in the Middle East over a century ago?

There is a variety of countries that are involved and it’s a discussion worth an entire book. Hence, so I don’t have to write a book, I’m going to limit the timeframe and start this recent chapter in the Middle East with the attack the Houthi Rebels made on Israel in July.

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The Escalatory Spiral Continues

On Friday 19th July, the Houthis flew an Iranian-made UAV modified for long-distance and hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv, killing one and injuring ten. The attack took place near the US Embassy branch in Tel Aviv, with some analysis stating this was the intended target. As to how the UAV wasn’t intercepted, human error was the reasoning stated as the reason. The air raid siren was not triggered. The reasoning behind the attack from the Iran-backed Houthis was stated as an attack “in support of the Palestinians”.

This marks the first time the Houthis have struck directly into Israel during this conflict, after months of trying. They stated that the drones are undetectable by radar systems, which is why the attack was able to hit Israel directly.

The Israelis responded the day after with an attack on the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah.

Photo by Andrew Svk on Unsplash

The Houthis have been involved since close to the start of this conflict in the Middle East, which started on October 7th last year. One big takeaway from this is how the Houthi drone attack was able to get through. If it was indeed human error, awareness will be raised within Israel, and a tightening up against similar air-based attacks will be seen. However, if the Houthis do indeed possess a drone that is “undetectable”, expect more attacks of a similar nature.

One overarching trend in war is the falling of barriers to enter a war, and the Houthis are a clear example of this. Anybody with a small drone and the ability to create some homemade explosive device can hinder the flow of trade through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, or launch an attack on a city. This doesn’t only lengthen supply chains during a period when inflationary supply pressures exist in the world, but it is also heavily impacting Egyptian income through the Canal. Also, the Israeli port of Eliat has been essentially closed since these Houthi attacks began. I’d wager in global geopolitics, these smaller groups having the capability to disrupt trade on a global level will be seen again in the future. As for the Houthis, these attacks will continue if the conflict in Gaza is occurring.

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Israel’s Northern Region In Flux