Geopolitics Review - 11th November 2024
Hidden Wars: What Is Happening In Myanmar?
Contents
Introduction
The Quick History of Myanmar
What Is Happening Today?
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Today, I’ll be returning to the series I’ve been running here at Geopolitics Explained for a few months now, the Hidden Wars series. In today’s edition, I’ll explore the history behind the country of Myanmar, located in Southeast Asia, bordered by China, Laos, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh.
Outside of where it is located, the mainstream media discuss very little about Myanmar. In my opinion, it is woefully insufficient to ignore a country that is embroiled in civil war today after a 2021 military coup, but that has been in a state of conflict since 1949.
A former British colony, Myanmar has since struggled to create any long-standing institutions, and thus small groups have fought for power and influence. With the military being one of the strongest groups in Myanmar, they can maintain a certain level of power and control. When the 2015 and 2020 elections saw the National League for Democracy rise in power, the military (Tatmadaw) didn’t like their decline in power. Thus we saw the 2021 military coup arise and the country is at war once again.
It’s worthwhile exploring the history that got us to 2021, while then also exploring the sheer number of individual groups represented within Myanmar, all of whom influence this current conflict. Hence, let’s first explore the history of Myanmar.
Introduction
In what I hope will be a welcomed change this week, I have fewer words to say this week on current events. Hence, today is back to the usual length of Geopolitics Reviews. Even though I’ll say less this week, this issue is as important as any other in the world of geopolitics. As I continue to discuss conflicts worldwide that receive little media attention, I find myself exploring the conflict in Myanmar. How did this conflict arise, what is happening today, and who is involved?
The Quick History of Myanmar
The conflict in Myanmar started over 76 years ago but the seeds were sewn in the early 1940s. During World War II, Burmese intellectuals travelled to Japan for military training against British colonial rule. The group were called the Thirty Comrades and they returned to Burma a year later, forming the Burma Independence Army. The BIA captured Rangoon, now known as Yangon, in 1942 and Japan established a puppet state with the BIA as the armed forces. Aung Sang was a member of the Thirty Comrades who became sceptical of Japan’s ability to win the war. In 1944, he switched sides. When the Japanese lost, he was a key figure in determining the direction taken by the state for the next few years.
The country was known as Burma and gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1948. As part of the independence, the Panlong Agreement was proposed to give autonomy to ethnic groups. Aung Sang was a key player in government who pushed this deal forward, but he was assassinated in July of 1947 before the independence was finalised. After this, no part of the Panlong Agreement was upheld and unrest started amongst ethnic groups in Burma.
Post-independence, the government, now under the leadership of U Nu, was opposed by two groups: The Communist Party of Burma (CPB) and the Karen Nationalists. The CPB fired the first shot of the conflict that arose a few months after independence. It was a turbulent time in Asia in general, as even the aftereffects of the Chinese Civil War found itself in Burma, with some Kuomintang troops fleeing to Burma.
Three governments were successful in the country before a 1962 coup led by the Tatmadaw, the armed forces, saw General Ne Win establish a military junta. The CPB and Karen National Liberation Army opposed this rule and took up arms against the junta.
This period of history culminated with the 8888 Uprising in 1988. These protests, riots, and marches against Ne Win and the Burmese Socialist Programme Party were suppressed by the army. The protests were productive, leading to the BSPP creating a multi-party system. This didn’t last, as the system was overthrown a few months later. The military established the State Law and Order Restoration Council, continuing their rule, but they promised an election would occur in 1990. Around this time in 1989, the Communist Party of Burma group disbanded their armed wing after decades of fighting saw them heavily weakened. However, with the promise of a 1990 election, there remained some optimism for those who felt underrepresented by the military leadership.
Aung San Suu Kyi emerged as a pro-democracy figure in the country, leading the National League for Democracy (NLD). The NLD won the election with a supermajority in the election but the junta refused to recognise this and placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.
The following decades saw the Tatmadaw weaken ethnic insurgency groups within the country. Between 1988 and 2011, they consolidated their power, heavily weakening the Karen National Liberation Army. Aung San Suu Kyi was a figurehead for a more democratic future but continued to be shut down by the military.
In 2007, the Saffron Revolution saw hundreds of thousands of monks protest for free elections, minority rights, and the release of political prisoners. A new constitution in 2008 saw huge political reforms occur, that were put in place between 2011 and 2015. The new constitution saw five self-administered zones and one self-administered division for six ethnic minority groups. In 2014, the NLD attempted constitutional changes due to Aung San Suu Kyi being ruled ineligible as President of Myanmar since anybody with foreign relatives couldn’t run for president, and Suu Kyi has two sons who hold British citizenship. These amendments were rejected.
A 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement was agreed by the majority of the 15 invited parties, with the President and 8 groups signing. 2015 also saw Suu Kyi’s NLD win the election in a landslide victory. However, the constitution stated that the military (Tatmadaw) had to hold 25% of seats in parliament. With at least a 75% parliamentary majority needed for constitutional amendments, the military could block any amendments alone. The NLD hence created a new position, called “State Councillor”. In 2016, this role was given to Suu Kyi, who de facto ruled the country as leader, with President Htin Kyaw more of a figurehead. When Htin Kyaw stepped down in 2018, Win Myint took the position of President, while Suu Kyi remained State Councillor, and essentially ruled in Myanmar.
In 2020, the NLD won a large victory yet again, signifying their immense popularity in Myanmar. However, the military saw their power slipping. After decades of rule, they were becoming less influential and less powerful. They hence made moves seeking to reverse this decline. In 2021, Myanmar slipped into a recognisable spiral, with the military launching yet another military coup that disposed of the civilian government led by the NLD and Suu Kyi. Many NLD leaders, including Suu Kyi, were placed under arrest. Initially placed in solitary confinement, Suu Kyi was moved to house arrest in mid-2023, citing health concerns as the reason for the move.
Yet, the period of NLD rule in Myanmar was over. With the military coup came more tension, and more conflict. Let’s explore further what’s happening today.
What Is Happening Today?
The military in Myanmar is also known as the Tatmadaw. The Tatmadaw’s commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, became head of state, with Aung San Suu Kyi arrested once again in the February 2021 coup. Anti-coup protests emerged once again, with some protestors travelling to train alongside Myanmar’s many insurgency groups. The locations of the many different groups in Myanmar are seen below, with the first image showing a 2023 snapshot, and the second image showing where the lines are drawn in this conflict as of November 2024.
With both maps representing a wide array of groups, it’s worth diving into each of these groups and their key characteristics.
Let’s analyse the players here.
The Junta (State Administration Council) - Ruled and established by the Tatmadaw, and its allies. This is the group that performed the 2021 coup.
PDF - The armed wing of the National Unity Government that was formed after the 2021 coup. The NLD, overthrown in the 2021 coup, are a part of this group, along with other opponents of the military junta.
AA - The Arakan Army controls a section of Myanmar’s Northern coastline, based in the Rakhine state. The AA is the armed wing of the United League of Arakan.
Chin Resistance - A military and political alliance between several ethnic armed groups in Chin State, Myanmar.
ZRA - The Zomi Revolutionary Army is an armed organisation based in the state of Manipur, India. In September 2023, the group clashed with groups in the Chin state in Myanmar, killing two.
KIA - The Kachin Independence Army is the armed branch of the Kachin Independence Organisation, itself a political group that is a coalition of six tribes. The Kachin’s homeland spreads from China’s Yunnan and Northeast India to the Kachin State in Myanmar.
TNLA - The Ta’ang National Liberation Army is the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front. They are active in Shan State along with many other groups.
MNDAA - Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army is an armed resistance group in Shan state. The army has existed since 1989 and has historic links to the old Communist Party of Burma (CPB). The group has held an inconsistent ceasefire with the Tatmadaw in the past, but fighting has periodically resumed in the Shan State since the 2021 coup.
SSPP - The Shan State Army (North) is a Shan nationalist insurgent group. They are the armed branch of the Shan State Progress Party.
Wa State - Wa State is an autonomous, self-governing entity in Myanmar. It has de-facto independence and its own political system and army, named the UWSA. The UWSA was formed in 1989 after the collapse of the armed wing of the Communist Party of Burma. The group maintains a ceasefire with the junta but is effectively autonomous. The group also receives support from China.
RCSS - The Shan State Army (South) is the armed wing of the Restoration Council of Shan State. RCSS is one of the largest insurgency groups in Myanmar.
Karenni Resistance - The Karenni Army is the armed wing of the Karenni National Progressive Party, operating in Kayah State. They are one of the key players in forming alliances against the junta.
KNLA - The Karen National Liberation Army is the military arm of the Karen National Union. The group fights for the self-determination of the Karen people and has been fighting the government as part of the Karen Conflict since 1949. The group are closely aligned with the NUG.
NMSP - The New Mon State Party is an opposition party in Myanmar. Its armed wing, the Mon National Liberation Army, has also fought the government since 1949.
NDAA - National Democratic Alliance Army is another insurgent group in Shan State. It is the armed wing of the Peace and Solidarity Committee. The relationship between the NDAA and the junta is complicated, with some periods of conflict and others of cooperation, depending on ever-changing political dynamics within Myanmar.
PNLA - Pa-O National Liberation Army is the armed wing of the Pa-O National Liberation Organisation. The group is active in the Shan State.
PNA - The PNA is aligned with the Myanmar military junta (Tatmadaw). Originally aligned to the Pa-O community, the group is now closely tied to the military junta. The alignment of the PNA with the junta is controversial among the Pa-O population, meaning it is important to distinguish between other Pa-O resistance groups.
Concluding Remarks
Next week, I’ll move on to discussing the direction in which this conflict is heading, with the influence each of these groups possesses or doesn’t possess. Who has momentum in this conflict, and is there any end in sight? Come back next week for this.
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Sources:
https://myanmar.iiss.org/updates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_conflict#/media/File:Military_situation_in_Myanmar,_December_2023.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8888_Uprising
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)#
excellent piece on Myanmar. We don't see much traction on the country and the going ons over there and this article discuss it very well!