Geopolitics Review - 11th November 2024
Hidden Wars: What Is Happening In Myanmar?
Contents
Introduction
The Quick History of Myanmar
What Is Happening Today?
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Today, I’ll be returning to the series I’ve been running here at Geopolitics Explained for a few months now, the Hidden Wars series. In today’s edition, I’ll explore the history behind the country of Myanmar, located in Southeast Asia, bordered by China, Laos, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh.
Outside of where it is located, the mainstream media discuss very little about Myanmar. In my opinion, it is woefully insufficient to ignore a country that is embroiled in civil war today after a 2021 military coup, but that has been in a state of conflict since 1949.
A former British colony, Myanmar has since struggled to create any long-standing institutions, and thus small groups have fought for power and influence. With the military being one of the strongest groups in Myanmar, they can maintain a certain level of power and control. When the 2015 and 2020 elections saw the National League for Democracy rise in power, the military (Tatmadaw) didn’t like their decline in power. Thus we saw the 2021 military coup arise and the country is at war once again.
It’s worthwhile exploring the history that got us to 2021, while then also exploring the sheer number of individual groups represented within Myanmar, all of whom influence this current conflict. Hence, let’s first explore the history of Myanmar.
Introduction
In what I hope will be a welcomed change this week, I have fewer words to say this week on current events. Hence, today is back to the usual length of Geopolitics Reviews. Even though I’ll say less this week, this issue is as important as any other in the world of geopolitics. As I continue to discuss conflicts worldwide that receive little media attention, I find myself exploring the conflict in Myanmar. How did this conflict arise, what is happening today, and who is involved?
The Quick History of Myanmar
The conflict in Myanmar started over 76 years ago but the seeds were sewn in the early 1940s. During World War II, Burmese intellectuals travelled to Japan for military training against British colonial rule. The group were called the Thirty Comrades and they returned to Burma a year later, forming the Burma Independence Army. The BIA captured Rangoon, now known as Yangon, in 1942 and Japan established a puppet state with the BIA as the armed forces. Aung Sang was a member of the Thirty Comrades who became sceptical of Japan’s ability to win the war. In 1944, he switched sides. When the Japanese lost, he was a key figure in determining the direction taken by the state for the next few years.
The country was known as Burma and gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1948. As part of the independence, the Panlong Agreement was proposed to give autonomy to ethnic groups. Aung Sang was a key player in government who pushed this deal forward, but he was assassinated in July of 1947 before the independence was finalised. After this, no part of the Panlong Agreement was upheld and unrest started amongst ethnic groups in Burma.
Post-independence, the government, now under the leadership of U Nu, was opposed by two groups: The Communist Party of Burma (CPB) and the Karen Nationalists. The CPB fired the first shot of the conflict that arose a few months after independence. It was a turbulent time in Asia in general, as even the aftereffects of the Chinese Civil War found itself in Burma, with some Kuomintang troops fleeing to Burma.
Three governments were successful in the country before a 1962 coup led by the Tatmadaw, the armed forces, saw General Ne Win establish a military junta. The CPB and Karen National Liberation Army opposed this rule and took up arms against the junta.
This period of history culminated with the 8888 Uprising in 1988. These protests, riots, and marches against Ne Win and the Burmese Socialist Programme Party were suppressed by the army. The protests were productive, leading to the BSPP creating a multi-party system. This didn’t last, as the system was overthrown a few months later. The military established the State Law and Order Restoration Council, continuing their rule, but they promised an election would occur in 1990. Around this time in 1989, the Communist Party of Burma group disbanded their armed wing after decades of fighting saw them heavily weakened. However, with the promise of a 1990 election, there remained some optimism for those who felt underrepresented by the military leadership.
Aung San Suu Kyi emerged as a pro-democracy figure in the country, leading the National League for Democracy (NLD). The NLD won the election with a supermajority in the election but the junta refused to recognise this and placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.
The following decades saw the Tatmadaw weaken ethnic insurgency groups within the country. Between 1988 and 2011, they consolidated their power, heavily weakening the Karen National Liberation Army. Aung San Suu Kyi was a figurehead for a more democratic future but continued to be shut down by the military.
In 2007, the Saffron Revolution saw hundreds of thousands of monks protest for free elections, minority rights, and the release of political prisoners. A new constitution in 2008 saw huge political reforms occur, that were put in place between 2011 and 2015. The new constitution saw five self-administered zones and one self-administered division for six ethnic minority groups. In 2014, the NLD attempted constitutional changes due to Aung San Suu Kyi being ruled ineligible as President of Myanmar since anybody with foreign relatives couldn’t run for president, and Suu Kyi has two sons who hold British citizenship. These amendments were rejected.
A 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement was agreed by the majority of the 15 invited parties, with the President and 8 groups signing. 2015 also saw Suu Kyi’s NLD win the election in a landslide victory. However, the constitution stated that the military (Tatmadaw) had to hold 25% of seats in parliament. With at least a 75% parliamentary majority needed for constitutional amendments, the military could block any amendments alone. The NLD hence created a new position, called “State Councillor”. In 2016, this role was given to Suu Kyi, who de facto ruled the country as leader, with President Htin Kyaw more of a figurehead. When Htin Kyaw stepped down in 2018, Win Myint took the position of President, while Suu Kyi remained State Councillor, and essentially ruled in Myanmar.
In 2020, the NLD won a large victory yet again, signifying their immense popularity in Myanmar. However, the military saw their power slipping. After decades of rule, they were becoming less influential and less powerful. They hence made moves seeking to reverse this decline. In 2021, Myanmar slipped into a recognisable spiral, with the military launching yet another military coup that disposed of the civilian government led by the NLD and Suu Kyi. Many NLD leaders, including Suu Kyi, were placed under arrest. Initially placed in solitary confinement, Suu Kyi was moved to house arrest in mid-2023, citing health concerns as the reason for the move.
Yet, the period of NLD rule in Myanmar was over. With the military coup came more tension, and more conflict. Let’s explore further what’s happening today.
What Is Happening Today?
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