Geopolitics Review - 10th March 2025

Hidden Wars: The Democratic Republic of The Congo - Where Are We Today? Where Do We Head Next?

Contents

1. Introduction

2. The Background - What Is Happening Today And Why?

3. A Region Of Instability

4. Where Do We Go From Here?

5. Concluding Remarks

6. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

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Bitesize Edition

• In exploring the Congo Crisis, and the First and Second Congo Wars last week, we discovered the underlying tensions that exist to this day and fuel conflict in this region of Africa.

• The fighting has fluctuated since 2021, but in recent months, the M23 rebels launched a major assault from Rwanda, travelling over the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

• The rebels have been successful in taking some cities in the DRC. This is contributing to thousands of deaths and millions being displaced. We’re now at the stage where other nations are being dragged in. The Ugandans don’t want to lose regions of influence they possess in the DRC, and nations such as South Africa and Burundi have sent troops in support of the DRC.

• I’ll explore the events that have led to today, before diving into the players involved here and potential scenarios for where we could head in the future.

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Introduction

This week, I’ll continue my writings on the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Last week, I discussed the history that has contributed to the instability that remains today. This week, I’ll discuss how this instability has risen to the surface once again and where we could go from here.

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The Background - What Is Happening Today and Why

Tensions remained in the DRC domestically and within the wider region after the 2006 DRC elections that we discussed last week. There still exist many groups who don’t want to lose influence to a centralised power. But some aspects of the peace deals formulated back then, on paper, seemed to have some maintained positive momentum behind them. Some conflicts did remain, namely the Kivu conflict, the Ituri conflict, and the Katanga insurgency, but it seemed as though the DRC was making positive progress. With this in mind, how do we find ourselves in a situation today where conflict has resumed?

A group of rebels named the M23 are led by ethnic Tutsis. They live in the area around the border between Rwanda and the DRC, which immediately involves both countries. The group says they are taking up arms to protect the rights of their minority group.

Back in 2012, the rebel group was established. They very quickly took control of territory in Goma, which is a city in the North Kivu province of the DRC. A joint force of the DRC’s Army and the UN expelled the rebels, who then agreed to be merged into the army in return for protection for the Tutsis.

In 2021, the rebel group started fighting once again, stating that promises had been broken. This fighting simmered for the next few years, but recent months have marked a dramatic escalation.

At the end of January 2025, the M23 rebels once again captured Goma. They have since also taken Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province, as well as Masisi, Rutshuru, and Katale.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M23_campaign_(2022%E2%80%93present)

On the surface, this escalation appears to have been sparked by the actions of the rebel group. However, the M23 leader previously fought in the Rwandan army. Is there a deeper connection here, and if so, how far does it go?

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A Region of Instability