Geopolitics Review - 10th February 2025
The Protests In Serbia
Contents
Introduction
The History of Serbia
Why Are Protests Happening Now?
Where Do We Go From Here?
Concluding Remarks
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
Bitesize Edition
Back in November 2024, we saw the unfortunate collapse of a canopy of the rail station in Novi Sad, Serbia that took 15 lives and injured many others. In the aftermath of the event, vigils were held for 15 victims over the following days and weeks.
These vigils eventually turned to protests against the quality of infrastructure in Serbia. Over three months later, these protests still continue. They are led heavily by students but also include others from the education sector, farmers, and lawyers, among others.
The protests are now targeted at political unhappiness within Serbia. The question is whether these protests will fade into the background, or if this is a movement with significant support.
It’s also worth exploring what this means for Serbia politically, and the future of the country generally.
Introduction
Today, I’d like to discuss a country that I recently visited, that country is Serbia. As I saw in person when I visited Belgrade, protests have been occurring across the country. Today, I’ll break down why this is happening, and where we go from here.
The History of Serbia
I’ve heavily explored the history of Serbia in my series on the Balkans that you can find here:
However, as a refresher, Serbia was a part of the Ottoman Empire for centuries. At the start of the 1800s, the Balkans experienced a rise in nationalism. This was especially true in Serbia, which gained autonomy after two uprisings occurred in 1804 and 1815 respectively. In 1817, Serbia was given de facto independence from the Ottoman Empire, and after the Russo-Turkish War in 1878 further damaged the already weakened Ottomans, the Serbs gained full independence and were considered a state.
As a part of the First and Second Balkan Wars, Bulgaria gained independence from the Ottomans in 1908, and Albania gained independence in 1912.
After the Ottomans lost World War One, they were dissolved, and the region of the Balkans formerly under their control was left in disarray. In its place emerged different variants that were eventually recognised as Yugoslavia. Serbia was the main power in the coalition of countries that was formerly Yugoslavia.
At different moments in time, different countries declared independence from Yugoslavia. Some nations achieved this peacefully (Slovenia, North Macedonia), but others weren’t as lucky, namely Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. This led to the Yugoslav Wars that occurred throughout the 1990s, the evidence of which still exists today.
After the Yugoslav Wars had seen Croatia, Slovenia, North Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina leave Yugoslavia, only Serbia and Montenegro remained. The final straw for Yugoslavia was the end of the union between Serbia and Montenegro in 2006. As Serbia emerged out of the period of Yugoslavia and its union with Montenegro, how did the next years look?
I visited Montenegro on my travels, and connections such as flags and Serbian registration plates can still be noticed. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serb population exist in a separate entity known as Republika Srpska. The Kosovo independence question also remains today. Politically, Serbia is less focused on the West than its other Balkan neighbours are, seemingly looking more East towards ties with Russia. However, the Serbs are aspiring EU members, and a large amount of Serbian imports are from the European Union. They are supported by both the EU and Russia, placing them in a peculiar position in our rising multipolar world today.
One thing is clear, every nation from the Yugoslav Wars sees themselves as a victim of genocide. Museums around Mostar and Sarajevo discuss personal stories from hundreds of families who were shattered by these wars, and as seen above, bullet holes remain in buildings around both cities. As for Serbia, while walking around Belgrade, a large sign sits along a building in one of the main squares. It reads: “The only genocide in the Balkans was against the Serbs.” Tensions in the Balkans certainly aren’t at zero, but with these protests, the issues for Serbia have come much closer to home.
Why Are Protests Happening Now?
On November 1st, 2024, a concrete canopy of a railway station collapsed in Novi Sad, killing 15 people, and severely injuring two more. Early protests were held in the form of vigils for the victims, but they began to shift focus when wider questions were asked about public infrastructure in Serbia and investigations were launched. When these investigations saw a lack of political accountability for the event, the largely student-based protests grew in number and size.
Since this first development in the protests, Goran Vesic (Former Minister of Construction, Transport and Infrastructure) and Tomislav Momirovic (Former Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade) have since resigned. Vesic was even arrested in the aftermath of the Novi Sad collapse.
However, these resignations did little to stem the protests, which have now expanded in scope even further. General corruption, media censorship, and excessive police force have become key reasons behind these protests. After red paint was thrown at the city hall entrance in Novi Sad and protestors attempted to breach the building, the police responded with tear gas and arrests. At another organised gathering on November 22nd, members of the Faculty of Dramatic Arts in Belgrade were attacked by an organised group.
On December 1st, a silent march was held on the roads of Novi Sad. President Aleksandar Vucic publicly said that any person who calls for the arrest of a driver who hypothetically would be to hit the protestors is “out of their minds” since “the driver was just going on his way.” The student blockades throughout December led to multiple suspended classes in Serbian education centres. Prime Minister Milos Vucevic also stated on December 17th that “you can’t bring down a country because of 15 people who died, nor 155, nor 1555.” The initial rhetoric of anger against the protestors did little to calm them. In fact, it achieved the opposite effect. These protestors weren’t scared; they were empowered.
The largest protest occurred in Slavija Square in Belgrade on December 22nd. Over 100,000 people were gathered. This marks the biggest protest in Serbia by attendance in recorded history.
Vucic has even attempted to dissipate this domestic instability across the rest of the Balkans. He accused eight Croatian students from Zagreb of organising protests on behalf of the Croatian intelligence agency, SOA.
In January, further escalations were made by the protestors. Students gathered in front of the Palace of Justice and the Constitutional Court of Serbia in Belgrade, as well as the offices of the security agency BIA in Novi Sad. The largest education workers’ union also announced a one-day strike. The largest event in January came when protestors gathered in front of the offices of Radio Television of Serbia. Here they provided their demands:
The publication of the documentation on the reconstruction of the Railway Station in Novi Sad.
The dismissal of charges against arrested and detained protestors.
The filing of criminal charges against all attackers of protestors.
An increase in the budget for faculties of 20%.
Further strikes were also launched by the Bar Association of Serbia. Until late January, the government had held their firm stance, with many occurrences of attacks against students, including hit-and-runs with vehicles and an attack against a group of students in Novi Sad on January 28th that had political ramifications. The group of students were putting up posters and were attacked by masked persons with baseball bats in front of the offices of SNS, the leading political party in Serbia of President Vucic, of which he was a founder. There was social media outrage and a new protest in Novi Sad occurred the following morning at 10 am. By 11 am, Prime Minister Milos Vucevic and Novi Sad Mayor Milan Duric had both resigned, with the attack given as the reason.
In a further concession to students, President Vucic said he would pardon protestors and announced a major governmental cabinet reshuffle. He also stated he was considering whether to call elections or appoint a new government.
On February 6th, the Serbian government adopted a decision to provide 12.01 billion Serbian dinars for higher education, this fulfilled the fourth demand of the protestors. Despite many of the conditions being hit, Serbia still remains in a state of flux. The bridge collapse has served as a trigger for thousands voicing general political dissatisfaction in Serbia. A lack of transparency from the government has been coupled with a lack of desire for justice, with them instead preferring to cover up and avoid blame. So, where does the political future of Serbia, Vucic and his SNS party go from here? Where does this end?
Where Do We Go From Here?
In Serbia itself, these protests don’t seem likely to disappear. They are being dictated by the students en masse, and they will continue to do so until they see it fit for them to end. It’s unlikely this ending comes with the agreement of the four criteria above since Vucic has stated he will agree to all demands, yet protests continue. Often, I’ll write about issues such as this, and they fade into the background within a few weeks. After multiple attacks and months of protesting, this issue still remains one that the Serbian people are committed to pursuing.
In such a scenario, this ends with major political change. But this change isn’t all that the protestors expect. The youth here are pursuing systemic change. As do so many who support them. University staff want greater academic freedom, and farmers need greater subsidies and financial support. Even the lawyers are unhappy with their lack of independence in the judiciary of Serbia. There are also signs that Vucic is losing a key political weapon, that being the media after the events outside the RTS offices saw the workers support the protestors. Back in 1998, Vucic was appointed as information minister. This period aligned with clashes in Kosovo and the NATO bombings, and Vucic cracked down heavily on media outlets that weren’t compliant with the narrative the leaders wanted to promote. Many newspapers were also banned at the time. Today, many of these same media outlets are starting to push the boundaries that restricted them for so long. Also, as independent journalists are on the rise and their capabilities require a mobile phone and an internet connection, it’s much harder to hide any political wrongdoings from the public eye.
Politically, the opposition in Serbia has called for a transitional government, to which Vucic has refused. With his allies, he still maintains a majority in parliament, holding 139 out of 250 seats. Also, no opposition party is in a position to rule, with them being divided and unpopular. Regardless, it seems like something has shifted in Serbia, especially among the youth, and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down.
In summary, concessions are being made where they were earlier refused by Vucic and the leadership. Where the concessions will end is the question everybody should be considering here. The consideration of calling elections would likely see the opposition gain some momentum in Serbia, but if it would be enough to see Vucic removed is a different question entirely. He has held power in Serbia for over 12 years in different political positions, and like most leaders, he likely wouldn't enjoy losing that. Without prolonged and escalating pressure, Vucic will remain. To me, this seems to be about resilience. The protestors have the power to force political change, as Vucic has seemed open to with early elections. Systemic change, however, is more difficult. We’ll keep an eye on any developments here because this is far from over.
Concluding Remarks
Despite the sheer volume of information available on the protests occurring in Serbia, leaders around the world remain muted.
The EU has been surprisingly quiet around the protests in Serbia. The EU Director-General Gert Jan Koopman visited Belgrade on January 20th and only the progress of Serbia towards the EU was noted.
Serbia continues to hold many cards related to the wider Balkan region. An unstable Serbia would threaten the stability of a region known for its historical and cultural issues. The EU knows this, which could be an indication as to why they are relatively quiet regarding the Serbian protests. I’ll discuss this next week, along with the rest of the world and its muted response.
Other News In Geopolitics This Week
13 States To File Lawsuit Against DOGE Access To Government Payment System
Apple Ordered To Provide UK Government Access To All User Data On The Cloud
Canada Will Send 10,000 Troops To Border and Name Fentanyl Czar
DOGE Enters FBI Headquarters To Obtain Names of 5000 Agents Who Worked January 6th Cases
India’s Modi Now Has Highest Approval Rating of All World Leaders
Iranian Ayatollah Closes Door On Negotiations With Trump After “Maximum Pressure” Resumes
Iran Inaugurates First Drone Carrier Warship In Persian Gulf
Kremlin Considers Saudi Arabia and UAE For Trump-Putin Summit
Musk Calls For Impeachment Of Obama-Appointed Judge Who Blocked DOGE Access At The Treasury
Netanyahu Suggests Palestinians Can Have A State In Saudi Arabia
Rubio To Skip G20 In Protest Against South Africa’s DEI And Climate Policy
Sweden Says No Sabotage In Baltic Sea Cable, Releases Vessel
Syria Clashes With Hezbollah On Lebanese Border For First Time
Syria’s De Facto Authorities Execute Sweeping Neoliberal Reforms
Tesla Sales Fall 11.5% In China Due To Increased Competition
Trump Envoy Demands Hezbollah Be Kicked Out of Lebanese Government
Trump Nukes All Government-Main Stream Media Contracts After Politico News
Trump Threatens To Modify India-Iran Sanctions Waiver For North-South Counter To China
Trump Warns He Left Instructions To Destroy Iran If He Is Assassinated
Trump Withdraws From UN Human Rights Council, Ends Funding To UNRWA
Trump’s Interest In Rare Minerals Could Backfire On Zelenskyy
U.S. Diplomats Warn Sending Gazans To Egypt Will Destabilize Sisi Regime
U.S. Navy Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carrier Spotted Off The Coast of Mexico
Ukraine Funds Left Wing Smear Campaign To Remove Orban In Hungary
Zelenskyy Tells Piers Morgan He’s Ready To Negotiate With Trump Directly
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Sources:
https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-mural-belgrade-serbia-russia-war-invasion/32169088.html
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/01/student-led-protests-in-serbia-mark-railway-station-deaths-blamed-on-graft
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Will go back to beginning now read through again. TMI without a globe under my hands!