Geopolitics Explained Scenario Analysis and Predictions For 2026 - Brazil and Canada
The Geopolitical Landscape In Brazil and Canada In 2026
Contents
Introduction
Brazil In 2026
Canada In 2026
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Brazil’s Strategic Balancing - Brazil enters 2026 as South America’s heavyweight, carefully managing relations with both the United States and China. China remains its largest trading partner, reinforcing Brazil’s tilt toward Beijing and its commitment to a multipolar world through BRICS. This positioning somewhat insulates Brazil from direct pressure under the revived Monroe Doctrine in comparison to other South American nations.
Brazil’s Politics and Economic Leverage - The October 2026 presidential election is central, with Lula seeking a fourth non-consecutive term against a fragmented opposition. Bolsonaro’s legal and health issues weaken the right, though figures like Tarcísio de Freitas could still shape the race. Trade leverage through soybeans and potential rare earth collaboration gives Brazil resilience, even amid potential spillovers from China’s economic slowdown.
Canada and a Strained U.S. Relationship - Canada’s strong resource base contrasts with growing instability in its relationship with the United States. USMCA remains fragile, and Trump’s trade weaponisation rhetoric keeps uncertainty high, particularly for energy, autos, and timber. As a result, Canada is actively seeking to reduce its heavy GDP exposure to the U.S.
Canada’s Strategic Diversification - Under Mark Carney, Canada is likely to deepen ties with Europe and selectively expand relations with China and the Indo-Pacific. Public opinion reflects scepticism toward all major powers, pushing Canada toward broader, more diversified partnerships. In 2026, Canada will navigate this recalibration amid domestic political manoeuvring and a shifting global trade order.
Introduction
Over the last few weeks, we’ve discussed what geopolitical scenarios could unfold in 2026 for many African nations, the United States, Venezuela, and Argentina.
Today, we’ll continue this series, exploring potential geopolitical developments that could unfold for Brazil and Canada in 2026.
