Geopolitics Explained: Scenario Analysis and Predictions For 2026 - The United States
The Geopolitical Landscape For The United States In 2026
Contents
Introduction
The Background
What Happened In The U.S Operation?
The Venezuela Puppet
China Remains The Target
The United States In 2026
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
U.S. Operation in Venezuela - The United States carried out a military operation to capture President Nicolás Maduro and transport him to New York with minimal resistance. The operation relied on months of intelligence gathering, air superiority, and possible internal support within Venezuela’s government. Its success demonstrated Trump’s willingness to use direct force as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy.
Regime Change Without Change - Following Maduro’s removal, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assumed power, preserving Venezuela’s existing political structure. Despite the rhetoric of regime change, the United States appears more interested in compliance than in democratic reform. Ongoing blockades and threats ensure Venezuela remains dependent on U.S. approval and leverage.
Oil, Control, and the Donroe Doctrine - Venezuela’s vast oil reserves are central to U.S. objectives, both economically and strategically. Trump’s actions align with the Donroe Doctrine, aimed at reasserting U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere and excluding foreign powers. While oil access matters, the deeper goal is geopolitical control rather than short-term energy gains.
China as the Strategic Target - Undermining China’s access to Venezuelan crude is a symbolic move in a wider U.S.–China power struggle. Although the immediate energy impact on China is limited, the action signals U.S. intent to claw back leverage wherever possible. In 2026 and beyond, this approach points to a more aggressive, coercive U.S. foreign policy driven by self-preservation rather than stability.
Introduction
I intended on discussing Venezuela today, and this discussion, in part, is focused on the recent U.S. operation in Venezuela. But the United States and Donald Trump in the last few days have made more moves that will reverberate throughout the entire year and beyond. These shifts will also affect many other countries as we head into 2026.
So today, I will discuss the recent moves in Venezuela, why the United States made these moves, and what this will mean for the United States and the wider geopolitical world in 2026 and beyond.
The Background
In September 2025, I release two posts called “Knocking On Venezuela’s Door” and “Kicking Down Venezuela’s Door”.
The first discussed the potential for Trump and the United States to pivot towards North and South America in what is being called the “Donroe Doctrine”. This is based on the Monroe Doctrine, which was the United States’ foreign policy position that opposed any foreign powers interfering in the Western Hemisphere.
At the time of this first discussion, a pivot of the United States towards North and South America was notable because it would divert efforts away from the Indo-Pacific. This is the geopolitical theatre I believed the United States would be most active in. This didn’t have to be direct action, but I believed the United States would focus on the Indo-Pacific because its greatest geopolitical rival is China. I’ll discuss this in more detail in this piece.
In exploring this pivot of the United States back towards its own backyard, there were some clear signs that this was occurring six months ago.
Military escalation in the Caribbean Sea started in August 2025, and an initial information reward on Maduro from January 2025 was doubled in the same month. Also, elections in Venezuela in May 2025 saw Maduro cling to power with many contesting the results.
Tensions clearly existed between the United States and Venezuela throughout 2025, but at the time, it was unknown in which direction this was heading. This is what my second post, Kicking Down Venezuela’s Door, explored.
The expected scenarios ranged from a purely psychological game launched by the United States to a direct military clash. I argued back in September 2025 that every scenario was a possibility because Trump had discussed so many of them as potential options in the past.
As we entered 2026, we now know which scenario Trump and the United States pursued.
What Happened In The U.S Operation?
The United States launched an operation to take Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from Venezuela. They took them to New York to stand trial. How did this operation unfold?
According to this in-depth Sky News article, these are the key details:
Firstly, months of spying, CIA operations, and the weather were vital considerations in this operation. The CIA on the ground in Venezuela learned everything they could about Maduro, including where he was and what he was doing as often as possible.
The weather then became the deciding factor. The forces were ready by early December for this operation. This is likely why Trump promised a $1776 “Warrior Dividend” to active-duty and eligible reserve service members, because they were waiting on suitable conditions, and hence were working throughout December and into 2026.
More than 150 aircraft took part in the operation, including F-22s, F-35s, and F-18s. These aircraft first sought to disable the air defence systems in Venezuela.
The U.S. helicopters arrived at Fort Tiuna, which is the military site where Maduro was captured, at 1:01 am EST.
Maduro and his wife reportedly “gave up” and were taken into custody. By 3:29 am EST, the group had successfully extracted and was back in the Caribbean Sea.
Initially, there were a few notable conclusions that jumped out.
Firstly, they kidnapped Nicolas Maduro with little resistance. In the aftermath, we found out that 32 Cubans were killed, alongside some Venezuelans. They were all likely a part of Maduro’s security team. Cuba is quiet about its security and intelligence support for Venezuela, but the presence of Cubans does make it clear that cooperation exists, at a minimum, in the security apparatus in Venezuela. This does imply that the United States, in being able to enter with relative ease, had some support in Venezuela.
Secondly, the timings had the forces on location for over two hours. This was reportedly to “secure the site”, but only seven Americans were injured in this lengthy operation. Five are already back to active duty. Typically, these high stakes military moves are rapid, direct grabs. For some reason, this operation differed.
Finally, for months, Maduro supposedly led “Cartel de Los Soles”. This was the main reason promoted for the U.S. interest in Maduro stepping down as leader of Venezuela. Once he had been kidnapped and flown to the United States, the DOJ rejected the group ever existing. This was never the reason, because it was likely not true.
In the months prior, Maduro and Trump shared some phone calls. Maduro offered to step down slowly, which was rejected by the United States. Trump then warned Maduro in November that it would be “in his best interest” to step down and leave Venezuela. With this recent operation, this was proven to be an ultimatum.
One contributing reason for this operation’s success could be due to a CIA source operating within Venezuela’s government who helped to track Maduro. Based on the success of this operation, the intel collected was extensive, and they likely had support.
One person rumoured to have aided in the capture of Maduro is Delcy Rodriguez, who was the vice president of Venezuela. It is even reported that secret meetings in the Middle East with Rodriguez and U.S. officials contributed to Maduro’s capture. Rodriguez reportedly presenting herself as a “more acceptable” alternative than Maduro.
In the aftermath of this operation, Rodriguez has stepped up into the role of President. This ensures that, despite many naming this operation as an attempt at regime change, politically, this isn’t true. Delcy Rodriguez is now running the same political structure that Maduro did.
In the last few days, Rodriguez has deployed armed militias to patrol the streets and arrest anyone opposed to the regime. Just because leadership has changed, Trump and the United States could still face issues in achieving their aims in Venezuela.
We’ll now find out if the United States deems Rodriguez as “more acceptable” than Maduro. Trump has threatened Rodriguez, stating that if she doesn’t work with the United States, she will suffer a fate “much worse than Maduro.”
This is why Trump has rejected opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, somebody whom he seemingly supported in the past. He doesn’t want Venezuela to flourish alone. He wants to benefit from controlling it.
The direction that we head in next will depend on what the United States wants to achieve in Venezuela.
The Venezuela Puppet
When Trump says the United States will “run” Venezuela, he doesn’t mean that literally, but he does mean that the United States will make every decision that is important regarding the future direction of Venezuela.
Also, remember, the naval blockade remains, and the threat of a future potential military raid remains, with Trump stating a second wave has been discussed. Venezuela will need support with this blockade in place, and in the current environment, that support will have to come from the United States. Just as the Oil-for-Food Programme was established by the United Nations in 1995 for Iraq, is the United States seeking to implement the same program on Venezuela?
The first reason why the United States made this move is for control over Venezuela’s oil industry. Crude oil isn’t the entire story, but it is relevant.
Firstly, ExxonMobil is present in Guyana’s Stabroek block. Venezuela under Maduro contested these waters. The United States’ operation in Venezuela will protect its interests in Guyana.
Secondly, Trump, during his political career, has seemingly obsessed over oil. Back in June 2023, he stated that when he left office for the first time, “Venezuela was ready to collapse, and we could have taken over, we could have had all that oil”. He has also said that the United States should have taken all of Iraq’s oil.
In the aftermath of the operation, Trump will seemingly get his way. Venezuela, in the last few days, has reportedly agreed to export crude to the United States, equivalent to between 30 and 50 million barrels.
However, this is easier said than done. Venezuela’s oil industry has decayed due to underinvestment. Their oil production and exports have been falling since 2015, which lines up with the first U.S. sanctions placed on Venezuela by the Obama administration. But Venezuela does possess the largest oil reserves in the world, with an expected 303 billion barrels in potential economic potential.
Despite Trump’s interest in Venezuelan heavy crude, it’s going to take a long time to get this industry up and running. U.S. refineries in the Gulf Coast are suited to processing this heavy crude, but there’s still a long way to go before this occurs on this scale. It is suspected that Venezuela currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day.
The Trump Administration has stated that the major oil companies will re-enter Venezuela. However, these companies are owed billions from previous periods in Venezuela, and have said they want “serious guarantees” before re-entering the Venezuelan crude market. Despite the promising sentiment coming out of the Trump administration, much work remains for them if this pursuit of Venezuelan crude is to be a success.
On the surface, these details paint the picture that the United States is only interested in Venezuela’s crude oil.
This is part of the story, but the ultimate aim remains to be Trump’s pursuit of the Donroe Doctrine.
The key detail here is that the Donroe Doctrine wants to remove foreign powers from interfering in the United States’ “backyard”.
This entire pursuit by the United States in Venezuela is to rival the Chinese.
China Remains The Target
On CNN, Stephen Miller stated:
We are a superpower, and under President Trump we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower. It is absurd that we would allow a nation in our own backyard to become a supplier of resources to our adversaries but not to us.
Venezuela’s crude oil reserves are the resources that Miller is referring to. This was also reiterated by U.S. Ambassador to the UN Michael Waltz.
By possessing greater control of the world’s crude, Trump hopes oil prices fall. Then gasoline prices will fall in the United States, and Trump will hope any sticky inflation will fade along with it. From there, Trump will hope for domestic success in the midterms this November.
But the United States is a global superpower, and as a result, they do somewhat also has to focus on global affairs, regardless of how much it seems like Trump doesn’t want to.
Earlier this year, during the U.S-China trade deal discussions, the United States very quickly realised the sheer number of cards that China holds against it. These cards can be weaponised at any time.
In the trade talks with the United States, China agreed to scale back rare earth export controls and to restart soybean purchases since U.S. farmers were hurting. China maintains the power to rescind these agreements. This is why we’ve seen the United States scrambling to diversify rare earth resources and to invest in building out a domestic rare earths industry. Also, it was the United States that backed down from the tariff escalation, not the Chinese. This trade agreement is active for a year and will then be revisited. This will occur in 2026.
The United States, due to its vulnerability to the Chinese, need to pursue resiliency.
The United States is the biggest energy producer of crude oil and natural gas in the world. This sounds like a card they could potentially play against the Chinese.
Unfortunately for them, China is the world’s biggest total energy producer.
With this move against Venezuela, the United States has undermined one source of China’s energy. However, this effort has undermined what accounts for 4% of Chinese crude oil imports. That doesn’t include all the other energy sources that China imports.
China is diversified and resilient, and as a result, gaining leverage over them is a tough pursuit.
Despite this move not hurting the Chinese much in terms of physical energy, it has angered them. Over a dozen Chevron tankers departed Venezuelan ports over the last few days to the United States. The crude with an initial destination of China remains on hold.
China holding leverage over the United States isn’t to say China is without issues. Deflation still exists, and their demographics are a worry. But in general, China holds more cards and options than the United States. Because of this, the United States will spend 2026 and beyond seeking to take some cards back.
In more detail, what could this look like?
The United States In 2026
As we head into 2026, this move against Venezuela should put other nations on guard.
In the first few days of 2026, Trump has threatened Colombia, Cuba, Greenland, and Mexico. Last year, he also had aggressive rhetoric towards Brazil. All of these nations would exist within the Donroe Doctrine Western Hemisphere. Also, Trump and Argentina are economically tied together, with Trump providing a $20B bailout to Milei in 2025. Not all pursuits of options by the United States have to involve military pressure.
Against the Chinese, the United States holds fewer cards that it can use coercively. As for these other nations, the United States does hold cards that it could play to squeeze these nations.
Expect the next three years under Trump to see the United States attempt to boost its own cards by exploiting and taking advantage of the relative weakness of other nations in comparison to itself.
If these moves feel extreme, it comes down to the superpower tussle between the United States and China.
In the past, in a ruling power versus rising power geopolitical tussle, ruling powers could reach a point where they had to fight aggressively to defend their position when it was incentivised to do so. In fact, these ruling versus rising power battles typically do end in war.
The UK did bow down to the United States at the end of World War II peacefully, and this had occurred over such a long period that many signs pointed to its eventual inevitability.
The UK had been declining for decades, and the United States allowed its tailwinds to slowly accrue until its strength was undeniable. China hopes to do the same, and the United States can’t allow this.
In 2025, the United States and Trump wanted to paint themselves as pursuing peace around the world.
In reality, in their 2025 peace pursuits, the United States was always self-interested. In the DRC, they sought access to rare earths. In Israel and Gaza, they sought to expand the Abraham Accords to isolate Iran. In Thailand and Cambodia, they would have pursued peace in geographic proximity to China. With Armenia and Azerbaijan, they would have pursued peace in geographic proximity to Russia. In Venezuela, they undermine Chinese energy access. In Ukraine, they would have undermined Russia and then achieved economic deals with Russia that would have boosted the United States’ position. In exploring the United States’ “adversaries”, this isn’t referring only to China. The Russians and the Iranians are also notable adversaries, and the United States will continue to make moves against them also.
In all of these pursuits, there is always a self-interested reason.
In 2026, the Donroe Doctrine will see the United States as more of an aggressor, all in the name of self-preservation and self-interest.
Concluding Remarks
This aggression won’t only be military aggression. Marco Rubio stated that the United States will prefer to use diplomatic means to get what it wants. But if this doesn’t work, expect the United States to pursue alternative methods of war in its coercive pursuit of options against its adversaries, most notably the Chinese.
In the worst cases, this operation against Venezuela has proven that Trump is willing to use military force as part of a hybrid warfare strategy. Since this line was crossed in Venezuela, we could well see it again this year and in the years after. The United States remains the world’s strongest military power. This is a realm in which they possess options. Trump will leverage the United States’ strengths, which, despite decline in some areas, it still possesses many.
The worry is that in these situations, accidents can occur, and the escalatory spiral can reach uncontrollable levels. Let’s hope level-heads exist somewhere.
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Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2x70k2q26o
https://news.sky.com/story/us-general-reveals-how-america-captured-venezuelas-president-13490105
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/03/politics/nicolas-maduro-capture-venezuela
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15434827/The-inside-job-toppled-Maduro-Venezuelas-vice-president-offered-replace-dictator-months-ago-secret-US-talks-conspiracy-theorists-claim-American-helicopters-werent-shot-at.html
