Geopolitics and Markets Review - 6th November 2023

How Has This Conflict Escalated Yet Again?

Contents

1) Tensions Rise In September

2) Efforts of Mediation Prove Unsuccessful

3) Saudi Ambassador Visits Palestinian Authority

4) Israel-Hamas 2023 War

5) Global Opinions

6) Concluding Remarks

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Tensions Rise in September

During September, there were signs around the Gaza Strip that a period of relative calm was ending. Hamas encouraged demonstrations by Palestinians occurring along the boundary fence, in which one Palestinian was shot dead by Israeli forces and another six injured in a botched explosion. The young people live in extreme conditions, with little access to necessities, and are penned in by closed borders to Israel and Egypt. As I’ve discussed before, Israel also patrols the oceans and airspace in Gaza. They have nowhere to go, and no opportunity for a better life. That every nation around the world has watched this develop since 1948 and not helped more to address this humanitarian crisis is itself a failure of innocent Palestinian civilians.

These protests at the border erupted after a collapse in indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, with Egyptian, Qatari and UN involvement during the months prior.

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Efforts of Mediation Prove Unsuccessful

A contributing factor to Hamas taking hostages was to create a deal for the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. In response, Netanyahu has stated a ceasefire will not occur until all hostages are released. This is another unnegotiable situation in a period of escalating global conflicts. We see in Russia and Ukraine that Russia will negotiate for peace if the annexed territories remain Russian, whereas Ukraine won’t accept the loss of any territory. In these situations, we only find ourselves at the negotiating table in two circumstances. Either a different party helps to mediate an agreement, or the weaker side approaches the negotiating table when fighting becomes a losing game for them.

Today, Qatar is still trying to negotiate de-escalation in the Gaza Strip. An agreement hasn’t yet been reached, with talks not breaking down completely, but occurring at a slower pace. Qatar hosts a political office for Hamas, which in discussions with the United States, Qatar has stated it is reconsidering. One thing is clear, Qatar will be key in any negotiation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Photo by Radoslaw Prekurat on Unsplash

The Qatari meditation led to the release of the two US hostages and the elderly Israeli women a few weeks ago. It has also led to humanitarian aid from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and the start of people crossing the border, with 1100 foreign nationals crossing since last Wednesday. To leave, however, dual citizenship is needed. This isn’t a privilege many possess. Even foreign nationals have found themselves turned away due to necessities being cut off from the Gaza Strip.

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What Happened When Saudi Ambassador Visited Palestinian Authority

The timing of this was interesting. On 26 September, Nayef al-Sudairi provided his credentials to the Palestinian Authority in person in the West Bank. His title is “Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to the State of Palestine, and Consul General of the Kingdom in Jerusalem”. Long title. But it highlights the importance to the Middle East of Palestinian existence. They cannot be wiped off the map by Israel, or we’ll have a fifth Arab-Israeli war on our hands.

Although Israel and Saudi Arabia were in discussions to normalize relations and establish diplomatic ties, some negotiation points mean this would have been a long way off.