Geopolitics and Markets Review – 3rd June 2024

The UK General Election – Regional And Global Effects

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Labour Policies

3. Conservative Policies

4. Landscape In The UK

5. Concluding Remarks

6. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

---

Bitesize Edition

• The UK election has been announced for July 4^th, and Labour is leading the Conservatives in the polls by a rather large margin. Looking ahead at potential future scenarios, what would a Labour government look like? If somehow the Conservatives manage to achieve some victory, what policies could we expect them to pursue?

• Since Brexit, the UK has seemed directionless. Policies intended to provide positive changes in the UK have worsened since the separation from the EU, and the UK’s strong trade relationship with many members of the EU has suffered as a result.

• The UK has deindustrialised over the previous few decades and has focused on banking and finance, which accounts for over 8% of GDP. But we’re entering a world of scarce resources and access to raw materials will be a strong determinant of economic growth as we head into a world of cleaner energy, AI, electric vehicles, and more powerful semiconductors. The UK will need to focus attention on some reindustrialisation and self-sufficiency as all states will, but the small landmass and large population will always mean the UK relies on other states to a certain extent.

• Fiscal spending and cuts need to be carefully managed moving forward, otherwise, we risk another LDI crisis or other financial issues, as former Prime Minister Liz Truss learned all too well. So, what is the landscape of the UK election looking like, and how will the UK geopolitical approach change if at all? Find out more below.

---

Introduction

I’ve been writing about the Balkans for the last three months, but now it’s time to return to current events with an impact on geopolitics. The UK election has been announced for the 4^th of July, a day which many are dubbing “Tory Independence Day”. Labour certainly looks set for an election victory if the polls are anything to go by, but what are the main policies of Labour and the Conservatives? Also, how will this election and the UK’s policies over the last few years affect them going forward on the regional and international stage? Find out more in this week’s piece.

---

Labour Policies

This election announced in the UK for the 4^th of July is the first UK election to be contested on TikTok, the entire concept of which makes me want to retreat into a corner and cry until I can convince myself it doesn’t exist.

Sunak made the announcement of the election in the rain, which upstaged him. Many in the UK are hoping for change, so what would these changes under a potential Labour government look like?