Geopolitics and Markets Review 31st October 2022:

Saudi Arabia Is Dealing Its Energy Cards, and Some Are Getting More Than Others.

We continue to trend towards a multipolar world. BRICS applications are increasing, and current members are open to new members. Especially those members who grow the power of the group. Saudi Arabia would be classed as one such member. They have large control over the oil market as the de-facto leader of OPEC. Saudi Arabia will be key to the future of energy in the world. If Europe’s energy crisis continues to be a recurring theme for years to come, then Saudi will grow more important.

Through Saudi Arabia's pivot to the East, they are demonstrating they want involvement in Chinese trade. As a result of this, they are distancing themselves from the US.

The US want oil prices lower to refill the SPR at $72. Emptying it to try to control global oil prices has angered Saudi Arabia. Most of their trade revolves around oil, so this strategy to lower prices, to gain votes in the midterm elections is short-term viewing from the US. In the long term, the pivot to the East remains the trend. Now the trend isn’t guaranteed to continue. But look at the negative attitude towards the US's current foreign strategy, and how many countries want to join BRICS. That backs up that the trend seems set to continue.

From this point of view, the US is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They continue to deplete the SPR to keep oil and gasoline prices low but continue to incite conflict with China and Russia.

If any escalations in conflict occur and the US has to get involved in a hot war, the strategic reserve is a lot less strategic. There are too many things pulling at the US. Internal political conflict and the importance of having power in 2024 are taking priority in the background of US politics. Both the Republicans and Democrats want to be in power to navigate the US through this period of increased tension. Because internal politics is reaching boiling point, US external politics are becoming reckless.