Geopolitics and Markets Review – 27th May 2024

Serbia and Kosovo – The Present-Day Conflict

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Wars For Independence

3. Kosovan Independence And NATO

4. Aftermath of the Kosovo War

5. The Present Day In The Balkans, And Serbia-Kosovo

6. Global Effects From The Balkans

7. Concluding Remarks

8. Other News In Geopolitics This Week

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Bitesize Edition

• We concluded last week’s piece by starting a discussion on the wars for independence after the first breakup of Yugoslavia, which occurred in Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia in the early 1990s. These conflicts were of varying lengths and severity, with the Bosnian War being the longest and most deadly. But once these conflicts were over, surely the future of the Balkans would be more peaceful, right?

• In part, yes. But still, we had Kosovo seeking to gain more autonomy from Yugoslavia as it was still named at the time, with Serbia and Montenegro remaining. This resulted in the Kosovo War, which saw the NATO bombing campaigns in Yugoslavia.

• In the aftermath of this, Serbia and Kosovo continued to experience tensions, with the key event being Kosovo declaring its independence from Serbia in 2008. Note, that Yugoslavia ceased to exist after Serbia and Montenegro voted for independence in 2006 and the vote was approved. Moving forward, we’ll explore how the relations between Serbia and Kosovo are progressing. Are they worsening, or is there a range of international stakeholders with an interest in promoting peace in the Balkans? Perhaps, there also exist some players in world geopolitics who wish to promote instability in the Balkans. Find out more about the complex landscape of the Balkans below.

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Introduction

In this final, rather lengthy, chapter of my series on the Balkans, we’ll explore the Yugoslav Wars that contributed to the beginning of the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo, which includes the 1999 NATO operations in the region. After breaking down these events, we’ll dive into how these historical events affect the landscape of the Balkans today and we’ll explore where the region is heading geopolitically. Find out more below!

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Wars For Independence

As we started discussing last week, these independence movements saw many conflicts erupt. The most stable member of the former Yugoslavia who gained independence was Macedonia, who remained at relative peace internally during the period of the Yugoslav Wars. The other member states weren’t so lucky.

These breakups and independence claims are partly an effect of human nature. We wish to be seen and understood. In more ethnically diverse nations, these differences between cultures are more noticeable, and if some cultures believe separating would allow them to pave a future for themselves more in line with their values and visions as a group, then that will be pursued. However, big scary bureaucratic governments leading such collections of cultures under one country often wish to defend their powerful positions. We’ve seen this throughout the history of the Balkans, especially under the previous Ottoman Empire.

The desire of a group to self-determine often doesn’t fade, and their wishes to determine their own politics, economics, language, and social structure don’t disappear. The trend towards greater representation of cultures in the Balkans is clear on a state level, but what of states in the Balkans joining global organisations of value-aligned countries? More on this later!

For now, let’s explore the key details of these conflicts for independence in the 1990s.