Geopolitics and Markets Review – 24th July 2023

Many updates on the Russia-Ukraine conflict this week, with Poland looking East, another attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, and the grain deal appears to be no more.

Poland Looks East

Moves are being made in Belarus and Poland. There is much more than meets the eye with Wagner in Belarus.

Poland decided this week to move military units east to counter the Wagner Group’s presence in Belarus. Prigozhin was seen in a video on Wednesday welcoming the Wagner fighters to Belarus, so it appears Prigozhin is still the leader. That creates more intrigue as to what Putin and Prigozhin discussed in their meeting in Moscow. If this is a plan by the Russians to relocate troops without losing masses of territory in Ukraine, then it appears to have been successful.

Prigozhin stated that his troops will not fight in Ukraine anymore but should gather strength for Africa where they provide security for China’s Belt and Road infrastructure projects. The Wagner Group has been partaking in joint exercises with the Belarusian army very close to the Polish border. Hence why Poland has been spooked by this.

Photo by Maksym Harbar on Unsplash

Putin stated aggressions against Belarus equal aggressions against Russia to counter Poland’s relocation of troops. Lukashenko, the Belarusian President stated “I am keeping them in central Belarus, as we agreed… We are controlling what is happening.” Firstly, Lukashenko is only controlling what Russia wants him to control. Even if he was a key part in stopping the Wagner rebellion, he is still the leader of a proxy state.

Secondly, did Lukashenko stop anything at all? If this was part of the plan to relocate troops in Belarus, where do these troops head next? Either to Africa or a northern border attack into Ukraine. Looking towards Poland when Russia already has enough happening with its war in Ukraine and its own internal politics would be foolish.

Why is Poland militarising so much?