Geopolitics and Markets Review 20th September 2022:

Border conflicts are breaking out all over the former Soviet Union. Armenia and Azerbaijan are at odds, while Pelosi was visiting Armenia she spoke supporting them. Turkey supports Azerbaijan and asked Armenia to “cease its provocations”. Turkey is a member of NATO but has relations with Russia. Ergodan was present at the summit in Uzbekistan last week. Many countries who had abstained from any response to the war in Ukraine voiced their opinions of worry about the war in Ukraine. It has come out today from the BBC that Ergodan says he believes Putin wishes to end the war. Whether it turns out this way remains to be seen. A lot of Russian equipment has been seized by the Ukrainians. So any Russian counteroffensive would most likely need an escalation.

Russian population demographics must also be a point of concern. Losing more of the youth of an ageing population by dragging out the war will not help Russia. Referendums are being discussed by the Russian government on annexing the Luhansk and Donetsk territories. Discussions about Crimea returning to Ukraine are also occurring. This would damage Russian access to the Black Sea.