Geopolitics and Markets Review – 12th June 2023

Sections

1. Nova Kakhovka Dam Explosion & Ukrainian Counteroffensive

2. Iran Nuclear Facility in The Zagros Mountains

3. Chinese Spy Base in Cuba

4. Other News

5. Aviation and Maritime Updates

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Nova Kakhovka Dam Explosion & Ukrainian Counteroffensive

In a move being predicted as far back as October 2022, the hydroelectric dam at Nova Kakhovka has been blown up. The second and third-order consequences of the Nova Kakhovka dam explosion will be severe. Both sides blamed the other, but both sides will suffer consequences. Both were vying for power over the other by controlling the dam and hence the fate of the other. That power has now vanished with one explosion. The question is who suffers the least? Or can handle the pain for the longest? Let’s look at the facts.

The explosion coincided with the Ukrainian counteroffensive beginning. How will the explosion at the dam affect the counter-offensive? Well, it makes it harder for both sides to move around the flooded areas. Ukraine currently controls Kherson. This will no doubt make it harder for Russia to take it back. Areas on the Russian side of the Dnieper have also been completely flooded. It almost removes an area of the battlefield. Hence Ukraine can more tightly focus its counter-offensive. It has been said Ukraine wants this counteroffensive to return Ukraine to its borders before the February 2022 invasion.

Photo by Juli Kosolapova on Unsplash

The dam is pivotal for Ukrainian irrigation further upstream. According to Ukraine’s Agricultural Ministry, it left 94% of irrigation systems in Kherson, 74% in Zaporizhzhia and 30% in Dnipro regions “without a source of water.”

The dam provides water to cool the reactors at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russia currently holds the nuclear power plant. In a tweet thread from @ChrisO_wiki, Ukraine’s hydroelectricity provider stated the reservoir has reached 41ft in depth as of June 8th. This is a level below what is known as “dead pool”. This means water can’t flow from the reservoir. Water to cool the plant will have to be accessed from elsewhere. Unless some kind of meltdown is the aim of either side?

The reservoir in the dam provides water for the North Crimea Canal. This is the most significant point of them all. Since 2014, the dam had been shut down by Ukraine. However, Russia restored the water flow in March of 2022. After the explosion of the dam, the level of water has been dropping. The water level is predicted to stabilise at 9ft or 3m. When it reaches 11m, it will no longer supply the North Crimean Canal. Currently, there is 40 million cubic metres in reserves in the canal that will be prioritised as drinking water. In the long term, after the explosion of the Kerch Strait Bridge, only one railroad route is open and traffic on it will be reduced. Any Russian access to Crimea goes over the Kerch Strait Bridge or through the annexed regions by truck. This creates slow supply chains into Crimea which Ukraine can attempt to cut off from the rest of Russia. Was the explosion of the dam the start of this?

Photo by Prateek Srivastava on Unsplash

Analysts state that it would be difficult to explode the dam with shelling from the outside. To do the damage that has been done, internal explosives would be required.

In November 2022, we saw an explosion on the dam. It was determined this was controlled explosions by Russian forces as they retreated when Ukraine retook Kherson. The dam wasn’t destroyed then. So it must have been some deep explosives to take out the dam. Someone give Seymour Hersh a call.

Also, we saw the videos on Twitter this week of the Western tanks destroyed.

Finally, Ukraine states it has retaken two villages in its counter-offensive.

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Iran Nuclear Facility in The Zagros Mountains

Iran is building a nuclear facility deep in the Zagros Mountains. The new facility is located next to the Natanz Enrichment Complex.