Geopolitics and Markets Review – 11th December 2023

The Future of Netanyahu

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Types of Judaism and Zionism

3. The Israeli Political Crisis

4. Structure of the Israeli Government

5. Netanyahu and Corruption

6. Netanyahu Politics – Why Some Blame Him For The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

7. Future of Netanyahu

8. Concluding Remarks

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Bitesize Edition

• In Judaism and Zionism, numerous branches appeal to those with differing ideologies and values. It's easy to misunderstand and be overwhelmed by the wide range of Judaism and Zionism. The first half of this post acts as a crash course in distinguishing between the different forms of Judaism and Zionism.

• The structure of the Israeli population from a religious point of view shows around one-third of the population are Hiloni Jews, the least religious group within Judaism. The government coalition, however, contains many parties aligned with Haredi Judaism, a strongly religious form of Judaism represented by 7.3% of the Israeli population.

• This brings into question how the structure of government, Netanyahu’s position, and his aggressive policies towards the Judicial system have worked to lower the opinion of the Likud Party and Netanyahu.

• The conflict in Gaza, Netanyahu’s corruption trial, and the far-right government formed in Israel have all contributed to questions surrounding Netanyahu’s future. We’ll dive into all these issues in this piece.

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Introduction

With many religions having first formed thousands of years ago, there are guaranteed to be changes in attitudes, human psychology, and human behaviour over this time. Our ideologies shift, and as life advances, the general values of humanity shift as we consider different aspects of life important. Some are influenced more by modern aspects of living, while some remain routed in the traditional aspects of religion upon which the faith was born. This is clear in Judaism, where the religion is very complicated to understand due to a wide array of new terms. This has come to the forefront in the current conflict with Israel, Palestine, and Hamas.

Before understanding why Israel is currently in a political crisis with Netanyahu at the helm, it helps to understand the different groups of Judaism and the structure of religion and government in Israel.

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Types of Judaism and Zionism

What is Judaism? – One of the world’s largest religions, founded over 3500 years ago in the Middle East. They believe the Ancient Hebrew prophets made a covenant with God. These prophets include Abraham and Moses. It is believed Abraham was chosen by God to form a great nation. This nation was named after Abraham’s grandson, Israel. Over a millennia later, Moses saved the Jewish population from persecution in Egypt with the parting of the Red Sea, allowing them to cross. Moses found the Ten Commandments on Mount Sinai, in the modern-day Sinai Peninsula.

Photo by Seif Amr on Unsplash

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Branches of Judaism – Orthodox, Conservative, Progressive/Reform/Liberal, Reconstructionist, Humanistic

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Divisions Within Branches of Judaism:

• Orthodox – Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi), Jewish Fundamentalism, Modern/Neo-Orthodox Judaism (Dati), Centrist Orthodox.

• Conservative (Masorti)

• Reform – Classical, New

Note: Modern/Neo-Orthodoxy is dominated by Religious Zionism, but they are not identical. They share many of the same values.

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Diagram of the Structure of Judaism: https://www.thelastdialogue.org/article/judaism-facts-and-analysis/

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Pie Chart of Religion in Israel (2016):

Hiloni Jews are the least religious group, often referred to as secular Jews.

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What is Zionism? – Zionism is a movement that details the wish to establish a homeland for the Jewish people in Palestine in alignment with the Land of Israel in the Jewish tradition. Zionism now supports the development and protection of Israel.

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Branches of Zionism – Political, Liberal, Labour, Revisionist, Cultural, Religious, General, Green, Practical, Synthetic, Revolutionary, Reform.

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The Israeli Political Crisis

The April 2019 and September 2019 elections were necessary due to Netanyahu’s corruption charges, and both led to no government being formed. March 2020 saw Netanyahu rise to leadership again. He was ousted by the joint Yamina and Yesh Atid rotation government. 61 seats are needed for an absolute majority in the Israeli Knesset. During the recent rush of elections, due to greater domestic religious splits in Israel, this has been difficult for any group to achieve, even with a coalition.

Netanyahu’s clinging to power has contributed to the political struggles over the last five years. Some parties won’t enter a coalition with Likud while Netanyahu is in the leadership role. This has made coalitions even more difficult.

The Reform wing refused to coalition with Netanyahu and Likud has refused to remove Netanyahu from leadership. No wings of Israeli politics were able to form a coalition by themselves due to tie-breaking parliamentary seats held by Arab parties, such as the Joint List alliance, which actually dissolved in 2022.

The split between Secular Jews and Religious Jews strongly leans towards Secular Jews in the population (33.1% of the total population), but government coalitions contain many Haredi Jewish parties. This is likely a key point driving issue towards Netanyahu and his leadership in Israel. Before diving into specifics, let's explore the structure of the Israeli Government.