Energy Reliability - Loss of Load Expectation
When Demand Outweighs Supply, And How To Measure This
Contents
Introduction
What Is Loss of Load Expectation
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
On and off for the last few weeks I have been discussing energy reliability. It’s not often a characteristic of energy that is frequently discussed, so I feel it’s useful to explore. We all want reliability in our lives, be it reliable people, or reliable items that we use every day. Since energy is life, having reliable energy is the foundation of life. We flick a light switch, and light comes shining out. We turn on the oven, and heat will cook our food. We’re surrounded by aspects of our lives that we can easily take for granted. This is why energy reliability is so important.
As we undergo energy transition around the world, it’s becoming an issue when there are periods when supply isn’t meeting demand. It’s here where the loss of load expectation proves useful. Let’s explore.
Introduction
In what will be my final piece discussing energy reliability, I’ll explore an important concept: Loss of load expectation. Let’s dive in.
What Is Loss of Load Expectation?
As we find ourselves living in a world where we are heavily focused on cleaning up our world, we have to ensure we can still produce enough electricity to satisfy demand. Of course, we can live simpler, more minimalistic lives, which would reduce demand, but this is a small niche of the global population that follows such an idea. Most people are expanding their electricity demand as more of our time and money are being demanded of us by external factors. An unfortunate consequence of this is that it’s likely that electricity demand will continue to rise in developed countries. As for developing and underdeveloped countries, they have incredible space to grow economically if given the opportunity. A consequence of economic growth is improved quality of life, which leads to greater consumption, and hence an increase in electricity demand.
Wouldn’t it be useful if we had a metric to help us determine whether our electricity demands were outweighing supply? Luckily, that’s where the loss of load expectation (LOLE) comes in.
LOLE is used in a power system to calculate the probability or raw number of hours when the power supply cannot meet demand. It is a measurement of risk, indicating the likelihood or time period under which a power system could experience power shortages. The higher the LOLE value, the greater the risk of shortages, brownouts, or blackouts. Let’s perform an example to better tell this story.
Calculation:
Example:
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