Does the UK Have Enough Natural Gas to Keep You Warm This Winter?
85% of buildings in the UK (August 2022) were heated by natural gas, according to this Reuters article. It contains other information relevant to the calculations.
Amount in 2021 in billion cubic metres:
Usage: 76.9
Imports: 51.35
Exports: 6.816
Production: 32.7
Total Usage Remaining: 0.334
The total usage remaining is calculated by adding the imports and production and taking away the exports. This amount is compared to the usage.
To forecast for 2022, I will split the year in half. I’ll explore the figures for January-June that have already been released and double them for the last six months of the year.
Including January-March and April-June should accurately represent three months of colder temperatures and stronger demand and for natural gas, and three summer months of weaker demand. The latter half of 2022 should look fairly similar.
Amount Forecast in January to June 2022Â in billion cubic metres:
Usage: 39.169 Â (Total Demand)
Imports: 29.692
Exports: 10.32
Production: 18.999
Total Usage Remaining: -0.798
From January to June, we are 0.798 billion (798 million) cubic metres below the expected 2022 first-half-of-the-year usage.
Forecasting for the full year (2022):
Amount Forecast in 2022 in billion cubic metres:
Usage: 78.338
Imports: 59.384
Exports: 20.64
Production: 37.998
Total Usage Remaining: -1.596
In 2022, by this forecast, we will be 1.596 billion cubic metres below expected usage.
This represents an increase of 1.87% in usage, 15.65% in imports, 102.82% in exports and 16.2% in production.
Does what we have in storage supply this deficit? We have 1.51 billion cubic metres in storage when they’re at 100% (as of 2021). This is before any additional storage that Centrica was given the go-ahead to seek approval on resuming gas storage at Rough Field in August 2022. This is too little too late to help this winter.
We’re currently at 93.54% full in October, so 1.412454 billion cubic metres.
Because we’re 1.596 billion cubic metres below where we should be,  we need to find 0.183546 billion cubic metres when forecasting for the entire year of 2022. The additional storage at Rough Field would have gone a long way to addressing this shortfall.
We have exported more than double the amount of natural gas we usually do this year, with more going to the Netherlands and Belgium than usual. Imports and production have also increased, but based on my maths, if we do experience blackouts in the UK, it could have been quite easily avoided by reducing exports, especially if we lose some of the imports or production is affected.
In the long term, heating in houses will pivot away from natural gas and oil-based methods. This is due to the carbon dioxide released by burning them contributing to climate change. A gas boiler bans in new homes after 2025 is set to be put in place with the aim of net-zero emissions by 2050. What will the alternatives be? Electric heating through any electricity production method that is deemed clean energy. This will allow countries to provide electric heating through methods suited to their environment. For example, Iceland uses its environment to provide electric heating through a geothermal plant.
January, February, and March of 2023 could be very important. When the data is released I’ll provide an update. If you want me to do something similar for your country, let me know!
I got most of my data here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends