8 Fascinating Takeaways from Geofusion 2.0, by Norbert Csizmadia:
Before we dive in, here is a background on the author. Norbert Csizmadia is a former Hungarian director at the Central Bank. He was responsible for economic strategy and planning. I found Geofusion 2.0 in a bookshop in Budapest if you want to go grab yourself a copy. These 8 key points are vital knowledge for anyone interested in geopolitics:
1) The Creation of Geofusion and Geoeconomics:
Geofusion is the connection of economics, geopolitics, and network analysis. It is used to identify global trends through trade networks. This is why cities will grow to be more important to global trade. Geoeconomics is what it says on the tin, the geography of economics. The author says geoeconomics will replace geopolitics. This is because markets will become more important than holding territory.
2) History of the Main Geopolitical Theories:
Csizmadia provides a brilliant summary of the theories that have set the groundwork for geopolitics. The first time the term was used was at the end of the 19th century by Ratzel and Kjellen. Mackinder’s Heartland Theory is the one referred to most, as it backs up Csizmadia’s research the best. It describes that whoever holds the Eurasian landmass controls it, and hence the surrounding region. This leads to control of the world. This theory doesn't include the US as it was proposed in 1919, before its rise to a world superpower.
Mahan’s theory on sea power is also relevant. It details controlling key areas in the world's oceans. Could we see both of these theories in some capacity, with the US-led ocean system and a Chinese-led land system in Eurasia?
The author goes into further detail about other theories of geopolitics. They are all worth a read to understand how geopolitics has changed since the 19th century.
3) Globalization:
Many geopoliticians believe we are past peak global trade brought upon by globalization. Pippa Malmgren’s glocalization concept was also analysed by Csizmadia, who refers to it as localization. This refers to networks of similar-minded countries with similar values trading together. I don’t believe we will see this limited by distance. The connectivity of the globe and globalization in the past demonstrates that we can get trade across the world. The aim is to get trade to reach its destination quicker. We will continue to see the time decrease as infrastructure improves. The WEF predicts that the Indian Ocean, Arctic Ocean, and Eurasia will become the most important regions.
4) Population Demographics:
I’m sure many of us see Elon tweeting that population decline will be the biggest challenge we face in the coming decades. Shrinking birth rates will lead to aging populations. Csizmadia notes all regions will experience a decline in population numbers from 2030 if they aren’t already. Countries in Africa and Asia where birth rates are higher will enjoy a growing population. This contributes to the working class growing in size and these countries will see high growth. The opposite will be seen in other countries, especially in the developed world, such as Japan. Their working population is projected to drop 25% by 2050.
5) Networks, Fusions, Connectivity, and Map Analysis:
Csizmadia clocked that few geopolitics books contained maps when he started in 2017. It is argued in Geofusion that we won’t battle for territory in the future, but for markets. Trade will play a vital part in the future of these networks. Take China as an example and its monopoly over many markets, such as materials used in solar panels. If a country is not in China’s trade sphere, it will have to pay a lot more to get what it wants. I haven't read them but Tim Marshall's books also appear to use maps to present geopolitical trends.
6) World Trade Centre Drifting to the East:
The creation of networks in geopolitics has brought some to the forefront. The biggest development is China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China aims to bring trade back to the land rather than the oceans. The US controls the world’s oceans with the most powerful navy. China’s infrastructure stretches across the entirety of Asia and Eastern Europe and is dubbed Eurasia. Groups such as ASEAN and BRICS would see increased GDP in this system.
7) Analysis of Cities: If trade pivots towards a more land-based system, then cities will be important. They are the richest areas of countries and produce the most capital to make infrastructure improvements. Csizmadia creates his own city ranking using factors from other city rankings and introduces his own method. His method is so in-depth I’d need an entire thread to explain it. The general qualities explored are infrastructure, liveability, knowledge, and global city ranking. His analysis demonstrates a pivot towards the east. Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo make up the top three cities in the author's ranking.
8) Hungary in this New World:
The final section of the book is devoted to where Hungary finds itself in this new multipolar system. Being situated in Eurasia, Budapest is set to be a key economic hub for trade in Eastern Europe. The other is Warsaw. Budapest will help trade spread to the South, and Warsaw to the North. This is referring to the Belt and Road Initiative and will enable trade to stretch towards Western Europe, increasing trade over land. The Budapest-to-Belgrade rail route and the port in Trieste are possible methods by which trade could increase. Note that Hungary rents an area of the port in Trieste.
All the research in Geofusion boils down to a basic principle. We are going to see a major shift in the values of countries. What is important will change, and the self-sufficiency of your own country will be a priority.