6 Exciting Trends We Could See In The Future of Space Exploration:
Geopolitics of the Moon: The territory on the moon must be international, with no access limitations. Any country that can get to the Moon will work with all others that get there. This is like the Svalbard archipelago. Although it is Norwegian territory, 46 countries have access to use the territory. We will see a Moon treaty where countries will work together for the greater good of humanity. But, the Svalbard Treaty often creates tension between the countries involved. In the future, could we see this tension spread to the moon, and have established territories? We will need treaties to avoid space conflict on the Moon. I don’t think this will stop space conflict in the long term.
Space Conflict: One of the most popular works on space conflict is The Next 100 Years, written by George Friedman. He discusses the potential of Battle Stars. These are a fictional group of three US space stations that will cover the entirety of the Earth. They will use surveillance and missile attacks to defend their territory. An innovation this big would cement global US hegemony. Nobody could battle an all-seeing power in the sky, never mind three of them. Friedman hypothesizes that the only way to beat these Battle Stars would be to attack from where it would be unexpected. The Moon (or somewhere else from behind). To find out more about George Friedman’s theories, I’d recommend reading The Next 100 Years. This theory seems inconceivable now. One thing that isn’t inconceivable is satellite war. Satellites are key to life on Earth for communication, navigation, and monitoring. If a country wanted to disrupt another's tech, satellites would be a great place to start. Currently, there are treaties in place to limit space conflict. Throughout history, we follow treaties, until we don't, and somebody breaks them.
Space Tourism: Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, and Elon Musk’s SpaceX are the three main companies competing for space tourism. Both Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic went into space last year as part of test flights. The cost to get onto one of these flights is expensive. But, for those with the capabilities to pay, we could see a boost to those going to space over the coming years. The space flights travel up to the Kármán line, which is sixty miles above the Earth’s surface. If space tourism becomes more affordable, we could see a growth in popularity. This is a big if, launching anything to space requires a hell of a lot of fuel, which is costly. Building the vehicles to get into orbit is also a costly pursuit.
Mining Asteroids and the Moon: We see China having a large impact on many commodities in world trade, such as Iron and Nickel. In 2020, China imported 70.97% of world iron ores and 69.8% of nickel ore. If we could find any of these materials in space, it would open a completely new supply. This would give close to unlimited supply, depending on accessibility. Currently, a large increase in supply would be difficult to access if it wasn’t on the Moon. Moon mining is an excellent starting point. One such resource that could become scarce over the coming decades is water. A necessity for the survival of life, if we could find water in space, this would solve a massive potential problem of water shortages. Through technological innovation, we work to solve the biggest problems that we face. Space mining could solve many problems through access to scarce materials. If we can get to Mars, then we can explore the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. One of these asteroids, Ceres, is 950km in diameter and is big enough to be a dwarf planet!
Deeper Space Exploration: One key advantage of the Artemis missions to the Moon is that we could launch missions to Mars from the Moon. We would do this by establishing bases on the moon, which is already planned. Other countries will also be establishing their own space missions of a similar nature. This could create a space transport network to explore new territory. Of course, issues of fuel arise from this. But, the moon reportedly has significant Helium-3 deposits. This isotope of Helium is stable we could use it as fuel in fusion reactors. We can also use solar power in space, which will be stronger in the thinner atmospheres of other bodies in space. The key element of space exploration is human survival. Fluctuating temperatures, extreme wind speeds, and radiation all need solutions. Other aspects of human survival such as food and water also are pivotal.
Dyson Sphere: This technology is quite out there. A Dyson Sphere is a fictional concept that involves surrounding the sun, or any other star, in a protective shell to harness its solar energy. This would increase the levels of energy received from a star. The sunlight wouldn’t have to travel the distance in space from its source to its destination. There exist other theoretical versions. These are Dyson Swarms, Dyson Bubbles, and Dyson Shells. Dyson Swarms would orbit a star in a single ring formation. Dyson Bubbles would completely surround a star in a collection of many Dyson Swarms. A Dyson Shell would completely encompass a star. Of course, this tech is completely theoretical and is nowhere near happening. It is very fun to research and explore though! We can't even get close enough to the sun to construct anything, never mind a structure like this.
Researching space gets me into such a research hole. I looked into stars that dim and brighten and the reasons this can happen, Alderson Disks, and O’Neill Cylinders.