Contents
Introduction
Tension With Biden and Netanyahu
War Cabinet Dissolved. What Next?
The Biden Peace Plan
Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
Last week, I discussed the Rafah offensive and tensions between Israel and seemingly everybody else. I’d recommend checking at piece out first. Now we can start to look ahead to the future.
We’ve seen the dissolution of the war cabinet in Israel due to a lack of strategy proposed for Gaza once the conflict is over. Is this because Netanyahu doesn’t want the conflict to end for his own career?
Regardless, it puts the United States in a difficult position. They don’t want to appear too unsupportive of Israel, otherwise, Iran stirs to the East. This is making the US strategy towards the conflict seem erratic, often represented by rising tensions between Biden and Netanyahu. As more news of atrocities emerge from Israel’s operation in Gaza, the United States has to pull back support at some point, while at the same time sending $26B in aid and 25 F-35s.
Biden wants a ceasefire so he can get an Israel-Saudi normalization deal over the line, likely to boost his election campaign in November. However, Netanyahu likely doesn’t care for Biden’s election campaign, and he got much more out of the previous Trump administration than Biden’s. Trump got the Abraham Accords over the line and in his peace proposal stated Jerusalem as the united capital of Israel. The question that emerges is what happens in November, and is Netanyahu still in the picture then? Let’s dive into more details below.
Introduction
I’m on holiday this week, so there will be no Other News segment this week. There is still the second part of my Israel Updates piece to cover, so let’s dive into it below.
Tensions With Biden & Netanyahu
Tensions do seem to be rising between Biden and Netanyahu with Israel and the U.S. making digs against the other.
Netanyahu has stopped Israeli intelligence officials and security chiefs from meeting with US officials on different occasions, and even with US condemnation, has allowed Israelis to return to three West Bank settlements that they had been banned from entering in 2005. This is one issue the United States has been against regarding Israel’s policy for quite some time.
Netanyahu also stated US arms supplies have been dropping for the last 4 months. It’s this that led to a response.
In said response, a White House Official stated: “We aren’t going to keep responding to the Prime Minister’s (Netanyahu) political statements. We look forward to constructive consultations with Defence Minister Gallant in Washington this week.” This is referring to this week, with these comments and the US rebuttal made on the last day.
Back in March, The United States seemingly felt bad for supporting what was becoming an even more destructive operation targeting the basic necessities of Palestinian civilians, and so started airdropping aid into Gaza. It was reported that one of these airdrops killed 18 people as a botched aid package landed in the sea, with 12 drownings and 6 killed in a stampede.
A month later, US Congress approved $26B in aid for Israel while also more recently signing a $3B deal for 25 F-35 jets to be sent to Israel.
They also completed the construction of the Gaza floating pier, aiming to get aid into Gaza. It broke apart a week after the operation began due to bad weather and choppy oceans. Earlier this month, (June 7th) it was reported that the pier was rebuilt, but it will cease operations in July.
The United States is seemingly stuck between overcommitting to support Israel or denouncing support through different methods. I believe this is because they can’t appear not to support Israel or Iran would smell weakness. However, they can’t support a state in its strategies to ethnically cleanse Palestinians.
If the United States remains on the fence, Netanyahu will continue to push for his goals of removing Hamas and ensuring Israel’s security from any potential future attack. The conflict won’t stop until Hamas is eliminated from power. The question is, is this even possible? Of course, the Hamas leadership can be taken out, but what of the tensions between Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs which has existed for over a century now?
One consequence of Israel’s operation in Palestine is the young Palestinian population will grow up with hate against Israel. Hamas is the group that facilitates this hatred through its unforgivable violence towards the Israeli state through heinous attacks like the one we saw on October 7th. But the idea instilled in Palestinians won’t fade overnight and is being taught in schools in Palestine to young, malleable minds. Hence why a long-term strategy needs to be adopted, starting with Palestine having the opportunity to determine its own future in a way that Israel can feel secure. Otherwise, when one Hamas is removed, another will emerge.
War Cabinet Dissolved. What Next?
Gantz and Eisenkot left Israel’s war cabinet a few weeks ago. The initial aim of the cabinet was to propose strategies and policies which could then be taken to the wider cabinet. Both Gantz and Eisenkot left the war cabinet on June 9th due to a lack of a plan for Gaza after the current operation ends.
As a result of Gantz and Eisenkot leaving, the war cabinet dissolved since it was part of the coalition agreement between Gantz and Netanyahu. Now Gantz is gone, Netanyahu states there is no such necessity for a war cabinet.
It’s no secret that to gain political support, Netanyahu has drifted further and further to the right of Israeli domestic politics. Typically, it’s the far-right that has supported the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and opposed Palestinian statehood. To stay in power, Netanyahu has moved further in this direction. He has even supported Hamas in the past as the instability Hamas spreads purely for its own power gain places Gaza further from being in a position to move towards the establishment of a Palestinian state.
As long as Netanyahu remains in control, this conflict will continue for as long as he wants it to, unless the United States steps in. Netanyahu has stated, “I oppose ending the war without eliminating Hamas.” The US themselves have stated, “We won’t allow Hamas to control the interests and future of the Gaza Strip.” Changes occurred when the United States didn’t veto the UN Security Council resolution calling for a Gaza ceasefire. Still, it took many months for Biden to propose a ceasefire agreement with clear and obvious gaps.
The United States appears to be sitting on the fence.
How have we gone from a potential Biden ceasefire and peace plan to escalation with Hezbollah and Israel in a matter of weeks?
The Biden Peace Plan
The plan included three steps, the first being a six-week ceasefire with Israel withdrawing from areas of Gaza with high populations present. Israeli captives would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, civilians in Gaza would have free movement, and 600 aid trucks would arrive each day. Then a negotiation between Israel and Hamas would occur to end hostilities permanently. Finally, after an end to the conflict was agreed, Gaza would be reconstructed.
There are some flaws in the plan. Firstly, as stated, the US has said Hamas can’t be allowed to remain in power. So why would Hamas negotiate to end the hostilities to then be ousted from power in Gaza? They wouldn’t.
Interestingly, the plan apparently came from the Israelis, many of whom have rejected the proposal. Netanyahu has distanced himself from the project also, with the Israeli aim to remove Hamas from power and ensure their own security regarding Gaza as prerequisites for the end of the conflict. Also, Netanyahu has to keep his government coalition together if he wishes to remain in power, with Ben-Gvir stating if the peace proposal is implemented, he and his party Jewish Power will dissolve the government. Netanyahu is also incentivised to do this himself to avoid the corruption charges he faces.
Hamas also stated they wanted changes to the proposal. Unfortunately for Biden, it appears a peace plan or ceasefire won’t happen until Netanyahu believes Israel’s goals have been achieved, or if Netanyahu is no longer in power. All this has ramifications for the US election in November. I know, you’re likely bored of hearing about the potential consequences of the election in November, but with the likely distance in policies between Biden and Trump, so many aspects of geopolitics will be affected. Let’s see how the election and Israeli domestic politics are linked.
Concluding Remarks
Again, I wrote too much on this deep topic. Next week, I’ll finalise this update with its connection to the US election, an exploration of the wider general conflict, where it’s heading, and what to look out for next.
Other News
United States
Trump Peace Plan Will Withhold Weapons From Ukraine Unless He Agrees To Negotiate
White House Warns Lebanon: Can’t Control or Restrain Israel If Offensive Starts
EU
China
Middle East
Jordanian Army Thwarts Syrian Drug Infiltration and Smuggling Operation
Jordan Announces Drilling of 10 New Natural Gas Wells This Year
NATO
Financial Markets
Other
Erdogan Doesn’t Rule Out Meeting Syria’s Assad to Restore Ties
Protestors Break Into Kenya Parliament Building, 5 Killed. Internet Connectivity Disruption After.
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Sources:
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